4 August 2023
By: Nico van Burick
Professor Willem Landman, a meteorologist at the University of Pretoria, says it is challenging to make rainfall forecasts for the summer rainfall area before August or September.
He says reliable forecasts about La Niña or El Niño conditions can easily be made six months in advance, but making useful predictions about rainfall in Southern Africa during the same time frame is impossible.
During a webinar hosted by Agri SA and Santam Insurance on the risks of El Niño for farmers, Landman said meteorologists would make predictions in August for rainfall in November, December and January, but there were already indications of dry conditions associated with a possible El Niño.
“It is much easier to forecast an El Niño than to predict its impact on the land. Generally, forecasts for wet seasons are more accurate than forecasts for droughts.”
Landman believes there is a strong possibility of an El Niño in the 2023-2024 season, and many forecast centres overwhelmingly favour this view, expecting it to affect the entire period of summer rainfall in Southern Africa.
“The latest prediction in July suggests a moderate to possibly strong El Niño. The 1907-1908 and 1915-1916 El Niño events, especially the latter, which caused widespread drought, were classified as very strong El Niño conditions. The expectation is that the upcoming one will not be as strong.”
André Ferreira, regional manager of Santam in the Western Cape, said Landman’s presentation emphasised how unpredictable the situation can be and how quickly circumstances can change.
“This makes it even more important for farmers and other stakeholders in agriculture to consider the risks and how they can prepare for them. I think our products offer the opportunity to provide for various situations and make financial provision for them in a meaningful way for farmers as well.”
Ferreira referred to a multi-risk policy that complements conventional insurance and covers a wide range of risks. It allows the insured to build up medium- to long-term insurance capacity to manage insurance costs optimally while applying good risk-management principles.
According to him, it is an insurance solution tailored to risks that cannot be covered in the conventional market, risks that are too expensive to insure conventionally, and clients who have established good risk-management principles in their businesses.
Willem Symington, chairperson of Agri SA’s natural resources department, said it was encouraging that the agricultural sector, private sector and academics were making such a significant effort to better understand the impact of weather on the agricultural industry and improve the sector’s sustainability and profitability.
He said the past decade was not the first in which severe droughts occurred. “However, it was the period during which the sector received the least help and support from the government. There will not be sufficient assistance from the government’s side again when farmers are in dire need.”
Therefore, he welcomed the involvement of other stakeholders in the economy to assist the agricultural sector in continuing to produce food sustainably.
