26 September 2023
By: Nico van Burick
Cotton production is expected to increase by about 25% in the upcoming planting season.
During cotton farmer days in the past few weeks, most producers have indicated their intention to plant more, which is good news for the industry, says Annette Bennett, acting CEO of Cotton SA.
She says that with the expectation of a dry year ahead, the benefits of cotton as a dryland crop and its value as a rotational crop are coming to the fore.
In South Africa, cotton is primarily rotated with maize, soybeans, sugarcane, sunflowers and wheat, and stakeholders discussed the advantages at the farmer days.
The most common rotation programmes are cotton-wheat-maize, cotton-wheat-cotton and cotton-wheat-lucerne, and they have been followed for several years in the Vaalharts area of the Northern Cape.
According to the publication Cotton SA, the benefits of cotton include preventing soil compaction, having a negative carbon footprint, helping weed and nematode control, providing a good income compared to other crops, being tolerant of poor water quality, and better withstanding load-shedding than other crops.
The local cotton crop for the 2022-2023 season stands at 88,425 bales of fibre compared to the previous season’s 76,659 bales, and according to the August market report, the local reference price is now R35.16/kg of fibre.
As for international production, weather conditions are playing a crucial role. Four of the world’s five largest producing countries in the 2023-2024 season – China, India, Pakistan, and the US – are experiencing dry conditions that are negatively impacting production.
China is facing extremely hot and dry conditions in its largest producing region, Xinjiang, which supplies 90% of the country’s cotton. Expected production is 5.6 million tons.
According to the market report, dry conditions are also affecting India, and to a lesser extent Pakistan, which could harm yields and quality if it continues.
In the western US state of Texas, it has become very dry after sufficient rain at planting time. The Department of Agriculture has adjusted its cotton crop forecast downward by nearly 550,000 tons.
Expected production is 3 million tons for the US, 5.5 million tons for India and 1.6 million tons for Pakistan. Brazil, the world’s other major producer, with 2.8 million tons, is getting closer to its goal of surpassing the US.
Expectations of a global recession and rising inflation have also put a damper on the cotton industry, although the recession has not yet become a reality and inflation has decreased in most developed countries. Prices that continue to decline in China could pose problems in the long term for exporting countries such as China, the US, Brazil and Australia.
A decrease in China’s industrial production could also lead to a worldwide decrease in consumption, as China is the second-largest economy and the world’s largest producer of cotton products.
Total expected world production stands at 25.06 million tons, and expected consumption has been adjusted downward by more than a million tons to 23.2 million tons. The average international price (Cotlook A-index) is 98.05 US cents per pound.
