11 October 2023
By: Nico van Burick
While avian flu has reduced the demand for oilseed products, soybean exports continue despite transportation issues.
Avian flu could lead to a decrease of up to 30% in the demand for oilseed products for poultry feed in certain parts of South Africa in the next few months.
This was an estimation by Dr Erhard Briedenhann, chairperson of the Oilseeds Advisory Committee, at a meeting of the Sunflower, Soybean and Soybean Food Forum.
He said this doesn’t apply to the whole of South Africa, and if he had to guess, he would estimate the nationwide average at 15% for the next two to three months.
Jannie Botma, farmer and vice-chairperson of the forum, said that due to widespread veld fires and a lack of grazing, many livestock are currently being sold for slaughter, which will also have a ripple effect on the demand for feed.
Soybean stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year are estimated at 2,88 million tons, with demand at 2,45 million tons.
Dr André van der Vyver, executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota), said 600 000 tons (18 shiploads) of soybeans are scheduled for export. Of these, 350 000 tons (11 shiploads) have already left the country. Export destinations include China, Portugal, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam.
However, there are still many problems with the transportation of commodities, the availability of time slots in ports and delays in loading or unloading commodities, and these drive up costs.
Van der Vyver said it could have been more cost-effective to transport soybeans by rail to Durban, but Transnet’s inability to do so increases transport costs from R220/ton to R250.
“At present, Transnet is transporting an average of only 13 000 tons of yellow maize per month to Durban, where two years ago it was averaging 70 000 tons. Considering that the average export from Durban’s port ranges from 280 000 tons to even 350 000 tons per month, it shows how dependent we are on road transport.”
There are also significant delays in loading and unloading cargo in the ports. Van der Vyver said time slots in the ports are a luxury and fully booked in advance for yellow maize. It was difficult to find available time slots for soybeans. Three shipments were exported from Maputo, and East London is increasingly being used for exports.
New planting season
Regarding the new planting season, Ralf Küsel, chairperson of the forum, believes soybean acreage will not be much lower than the previous season because prices look favourable compared to those of maize. There have also been better yields with soybeans in recent years, which help to make soybean cultivation profitable.
“This is especially favourable considering that prices are at export parity, which is necessary for processors to be profitable as well,” he said. The better yields can be attributed mainly to improved cultivars available since the technology levy was introduced.
Andrew Bennett, CEO of the South African Cultivar and Technology Agency, said that between June 2022 and June 2023, 67 new soybean cultivars were registered by 12 seed companies. Several contain the new Intacta RR2 Pro technology, ensuring insect resistance and glyphosate tolerance.
“The number of new cultivars is impressive considering that only 217 different ones are registered in South Africa. I hope this will show that this new system is beneficial to farmers and the entire industry,” said Bennett.
There are complaints about soybean seeds being largely sold out and about the price of Intacta cultivars, which cost about R400 per bag more than others.
Corné Louw, head of applied economics and member services at Grain SA, believes competition will rectify this. If seed becomes too expensive, farmers can keep their own seed and not buy seeds, he said.
