27 February 2024
Heatwave conditions over large parts of South Africa may continue this week, with record-high temperatures expected in some areas. At the same time, it is suspected that drought conditions have already significantly affected summer crop plantings.
The rainfall patterns and very warm conditions experienced so far in February are characteristic of El Niño seasons. Scattered rainfall has occurred since February 22, with parts of the southern Free State receiving up to 30 mm over the weekend. Although light in some areas, rain has also fallen over parts of the winter rainfall region, the south coast and adjacent inland areas.
“Like during almost all strong El Niño events in the past, especially 2016, very dry conditions have occurred in February,” says Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist. “During most El Niño events, the first part of the season was better than the second. The current situation is the same.”
He says that in February 2016, during the previous strong El Niño season, Bothaville in the Free State recorded less than 30 mm of rain for the month. This month, very little rain has also been recorded. Another characteristic of previous El Niño events and this season is patches of good rainfall.
“According to estimates, the current maize crop has already shrunk by at least 25% compared to expectations a month to three weeks ago,” says Van den Berg. “The potential for late plantings, especially of maize in the western production areas where most white maize is grown, has also sharply decreased as it moves into the reproductive growth stages. If rain does occur before March 10, the recovery capacity will still be very weak.”
The situation has also resulted in weakened grazing conditions. Veld fires can easily occur because grass and other vegetation are very dry.
When will conditions improve?
Van den Berg says there may be a few showers in the last days of February and the first week of March, especially over Mpumalanga, eastern parts of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Improvement could begin from the second week of March over central to eastern parts, including the Free State, North West, eastern parts of the Northern Cape, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal.
“The outlook for rain in the second part of March currently does not look favourable,” he says.
Record-high temperatures
High temperatures will continue until the beginning of the second week of March, especially over the central and western inland, with cloudier conditions possible from the second week of March onwards.
“Temperatures of 40°C or even higher are possible until about March 7 over the western inland in places like Upington, Pofadder, Springbok and Prieska.”
Very warm conditions will also persist over northwestern parts of Limpopo, western parts of North West, the western Free State, inland areas of the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape until about March 3.
“Record-high temperatures of 45°C or higher are possible on February 28 in the districts of Clanwilliam and Vredendal,” says Van den Berg.
“Temperatures up to 40°C are also possible in the Cape Winelands in places like Paarl, Worcester and the Hex River Valley, as well as in the Klein Karoo in places like Oudtshoorn and Calitzdorp.”
Cooler conditions may occur from March 3 over the western and southern inland due to a cold front moving over South Africa. Rain may then fall over the winter rainfall area, with 10 mm or more possible on March 4 and 5 in places such as Paarl, Malmesbury, Cape Town and the Hex River Valley.
“More than 10 mm is possible over parts of the Overberg and south coast, such as Grabouw, Caledon, Bredasdorp, Hermanus, Swellendam and Riversdale. However, very little rain is expected over the Klein Karoo and the northern and northwestern inland of the Western Cape.”
