5 March 2024
A shortage of maize – especially white maize for human consumption – looms in Southern Africa due to widespread drought.
Zambia, the second-largest maize-producing country in Southern Africa, recently declared a state of disaster and emergency due to drought. This puts greater pressure on South Africa to supply its neighbouring countries with maize – even while its own prospects do not look promising.
In its first production estimate, the crop estimates committee projected South Africa’s harvest of white and yellow maize in the 2023/24 season at 7 million tons (17% lower than the previous season) and 7,3 million tons (8% lower), respectively.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, attributes this to poor yields expected in some areas due to the drought. Plantings are higher than in the previous season but high temperatures and low rainfall are a major concern for farmers, especially in the summer rainfall regions.
“The season started well despite the El Niño condition with widespread rainfall, and we were looking forward to a good season. These prospects have now changed and poor yields await if there is no urgent rain over a wide area,” says Sihlobo.
He says if a harvest of 14,3 million tons is achieved, it is still sufficient for local consumption of about 12 million tons and South Africa will remain a net exporter, although with far less maize for export than in previous years.
“If the entire region is hit by drought, South Africa’s surplus may be insufficient to meet demand. There is already concern about drought in Botswana, Lesotho and Zimbabwe.”
Neighbouring countries
According to the Associated Press news agency, President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia declared the drought a national disaster on 29 February and introduced a state of emergency. Food security for a million households is threatened.
He said 84 of the country’s 116 districts are affected by the drought and almost half of Zambia’s maize plantings of 2,2 million hectares have been destroyed.
Food will be distributed from areas where it is available to districts in need. More imports are planned with the assistance of United Nations (UN) aid agencies and local businesses.
The UN World Food Programme says parts of Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana experienced the driest February in 40 years, while drought also prevails in southern parts of Malawi, eastern parts of Angola and parts of Mozambique. It is estimated that 20 million people in Southern Africa will need food assistance from January to March 2025.
Plan ahead
Sihlobo says in South Africa, the crop estimates committee’s projection at the end of this month may provide a better indication of expectations.
“For now, we are all praying for rain because the recent estimate may not yet reflect the disruption and damage due to the drought and heat of recent days.”
His advice to neighbouring countries is to refrain from export restrictions and price interference, try to provide support at the household level, engage with aid organisations in a timely manner, and reach out to other countries, such as Mexico, which also produce white maize and may be able to export.
