12 March 2024
The greatest impact of tropical storm Filipo will be in southern Mozambique, but it could also affect the far northeast of South Africa.
According to the South African Weather Service, the tropical low-pressure system that developed in the Mozambique Channel on Sunday significantly intensified by Monday into a moderate tropical storm with winds of 63 km/h to 89 km/h.
Filipo was close to Mozambique’s southern coastline yesterday at 8am and was moving westward at 11 km/h. As the system moves closer to the coastline south of Beira, the risk of storm surges increases.
According to forecasts from the RSMC La Réunion, storm surges could raise local sea levels by up to 50 cm, especially from the coastline near Beira to Vilankulos in the south.
Filipo was expected to reach the Mozambican coast at or near Inhassoro, north of Vilankulos, last night and develop into a severe tropical storm with winds of 89 km/h to 118 km/h.
This creates a high risk of weather-related damage due to a combination of heavy rainfall, strong and damaging winds with gusts of over 100 km/h, as well as storm surges near the coastline.
Southern Mozambique could expect 100mm to 300mm of rain daily until Wednesday as the system rapidly moves southward.
The weather service warns of a moderate to high risk of heavy rain in the Lowveld areas of Limpopo today, and in the Mpumalanga Lowveld tomorrow, especially along the eastern escarpment.
This could result in localised flooding over the southern Lowveld, including the Kruger National Park, as well as Eswatini and the far northeast of KwaZulu-Natal.
According to the weather service, the rain will clear by Thursday as the system exits Southern Africa and moves over the southern Indian Ocean to the east.
