19 March 2024
Temporary relief from the drought and very warm conditions that have prevailed over large parts of the country in recent weeks is predicted in the week before Easter.
Precipitation of around 20mm is expected from 23-27 March over central, eastern and southeastern parts of the country. “This includes eastern parts of North West, the entire Free State, eastern parts of the Northern Cape, the whole of Gauteng, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the southern half of Limpopo,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.
These rains will bring limited relief for summer crops that have already suffered irreparable damage.
“Rainfall of 10-20mm may also occur over the northern and eastern parts of the Eastern Cape in places like Cradock, Jansenville and Graaff-Reinet. However, very little rain is expected over most of the western inland areas, which include the majority of the Kalahari and the western parts of the Karoo.”
Regarding the winter rainfall region, rain is predicted in the short term around 23 March, as well as during the second week of April. Current forecasts indicate light rainfall of 5-10mm at least until the second half of April.
Longer term
“With the El Niño system weakening much more slowly than initially predicted, the chance of good rain for the coming months is diminishing,” says Van den Berg.
“The chance of rain for April is still below average for most of the country. The chance of rain falling in patches improves for April and May compared to February and March, but generally it is not significant amounts of rain over large areas.”
Production conditions for grazing before winter do not look good, as the growth period for grassland pastures is almost over.
“As for the more so-called winter grazing over the western, southern and northern inland areas, rain can still improve conditions, but the chance of good rain currently looks below average for the remaining growth months before winter. A fairly difficult couple of grazing months may lie ahead until summer,” says Van den Berg.
“A bright spot is that the La Niña phenomenon predicted for the coming summer may bring more favourable rainfall from midsummer, which could be November and/or December. However, it will be a long journey until then.”
Regarding rainfall in the winter rainfall region, the presence of an El Niño system usually leads to above-average rainfall conditions. “However, this is valid when strong El Niño-like conditions occur during the rainy season from May to September. During the weakening phase of El Niño, and especially the transition phase to neutral or La Niña conditions, rainfall conditions are below average.”
During a transition phase, a later than normal onset of the winter rainfall season often occurs.
