26 March 2024
Calculations of white maize supply and demand in southern and southeastern Africa later this year indicate a shortage of at least 300 000 tons.
A commodity company in Zambia, Volop Africa, bases its calculations on a carryover stock of 2,8 million tons in South Africa and 450 000 tons in Zambia, but for many other countries, pipeline stocks and crop expectations are only estimates. The predicted shortage could become much greater.
Volop says the effects of El Niño vary between countries and regions. In South Africa, eSwatini, Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, Malawi and southern Zambia, the drought has had a devastating impact. However, in northern Zambia, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya there has been good rainfall.
Nevertheless, a surplus is expected in only three out of 13 countries. These are Uganda with a surplus of 900 000 tons, Tanzania with 1 million tons and South Africa, where a surplus of 3,4 million tons is expected to fill most of the region’s deficits.
Zambia, the second-largest producer in Southern Africa after South Africa, declared the drought a national disaster and announced a state of emergency at the end of February. Even with a carryover stock of 450 000 tons of white maize and an expected harvest of 2 million tons, there will still be a shortfall of 350 000 tons. Zambia has banned exports of maize, maize meal and soybean products.
Volop says it is important to note that the world price of maize is falling because there is sufficient stock. The shortage is in Africa – specifically of white maize and in some cases non-genetically modified white maize.
Some of Volop’s suggestions to address the situation in Zambia include abolishing import duties and encouraging the import of yellow maize for animal feed. Import duties on soybean oil and other vegetable oils, as well as wheat, should also be waived.
The company points out that wheat prices internationally are very low, mainly due to the record harvest in Russia.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, says the summer season started excellently for all countries in the region and everyone was able to plant as intended.
“The problem started in February when rainfall ceased in many places. The feedback we are getting from many countries is that poor harvests are expected. South Africa will soon have a better indication of its harvest.
“We already know that Zimbabwe will have to import about 1,5 million tons of white maize. Half of its crop has been devastated by the drought. The major challenge for the region’s stock will begin around the middle of the year. You can already see this reflected in the upward pressure on the price of white maize.
“Worldwide, there is plenty of maize available, but the problem is that roughly 95% of it is yellow maize, while the significant demand in the region will be for white maize.”
