Rainfall in November can complicate harvest time for farmers in the winter rain region, while it can put pressure on farmers in the eastern summer rain production areas in particular.
Forecasts indicate that rain may occur several more times in the next three to four weeks over parts of the winter rain region. Although the precipitation should be light, these conditions can complicate harvest time and cause damage to grain that is now ready for harvest.
“Light precipitation of less than 5mm at a time is expected over the central to southwestern parts of the winter rain area on 4 and 5 November, 7 and 8 November, 12 and 13, as well as 23 and 24 November,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist. “Heavier precipitation may occur over the Rûens, especially on 4 and 5 November and 12 and 13 November. Fairly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions are expected, which will greatly complicate the harvesting process and may lead to grade losses.”
And the summer rain area…
Although there was sufficient rain in places to be able to plant in the eastern summer grain areas, such as the Eastern Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, there are parts that still need good rain. So plantings are below average for this time of year.
According to Van den Berg, it rained a lot in spots and rain figures are not necessarily an indication of the precipitation of an entire district or larger areas. Since the beginning of September around 22mm has fallen at Standerton in Mpumalanga, 23mm at Delmas and 53mm at Bethal.
In the Eastern Free State, conditions look better, with Bethlehem recording more than 60mm. At Senekal up to 109mm was measured, at Vrede 73mm and at Warden 70mm. In KwaZulu-Natal, up to 75mm fell at Greytown, and over the south-eastern parts of Mpumalanga in the district of Amersfoort, also up to 75mm. “Considering that the optimal planting time for summer crops in these areas comes to an end in the latter half of November, it is clear that time is now an important factor.”
Little rain has so far occurred further west, but there are still almost eight weeks of planting time left in these areas, so it is not yet a crisis.
Weather models are currently indicating that conditions for good rainfall in excess of 30mm may occur from 6 to at least 16 November over the eastern production areas in particular. Good precipitation may also begin to occur further west. “This scenario could create problems for the eastern production areas to be able to plant before the end of November, as fields may be too wet to plant from 6 to 16 November. For the western production areas, this can create ideal planting conditions from the latter part of November,” says Van den Berg.
