Although the western and northern parts of the country suffered from heat wave conditions last week and this past weekend, a sharp drop in temperatures is predicted from Tuesday 5 November, as well as heavy rain that will occur from Wednesday 6 November.
The cold air brought in by the cold front over the Western Cape will drop the minimum temperatures on Tuesday 5 November to below 5°C in especially the Southern Free State and the adjoining areas in the Eastern and Northern Cape, and the maximum temperatures can drop by between 10°C and 20°C.
“This drop is going to be short-lived, and the temperatures will quickly recover from 6 November,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.
Meanwhile, good rainfall may occur over the Cape’s southern coastal areas on Tuesday – from Mossel Bay northwards over the Eastern Cape coastal areas and the adjacent interior – which may extend to KwaZulu-Natal on Thursday 7 November.
“There is a warning of heavy rain that may occur on 6 November from Mossel Bay to close to KwaZulu-Natal’s southern border, and especially in the area between Gqeberha and East London more than 50mm may fall.”
From Wednesday 6 November, the rainfall will move more towards the interior of Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the north-east of the Free State, Gauteng and the southern parts of Limpopo. Fairly heavy precipitation may occur in places. Rain may also occur over the rest of the Free State, North West and even the eastern parts of the Northern Cape, as well as the northern parts of the Eastern Cape until Saturday 9 November before the system will weaken and move north-eastwards.
“Very little rain is expected in the next week over the northern parts of Limpopo, most of the Northern Cape, the western parts of the Eastern Cape, as well as the northern parts of the Western Cape.”
Conditions for planting rain improve
He said the conditions for rain in the planting areas for the important summer grain areas of Mpumalanga and the northeastern Free State, which have not had much rain to date, will improve considerably around 6 November. Especially from 10 November to around 23 November there is a chance of rain almost every day.
According to him, this can create favourable conditions, but with planting time that is very limited, it may also cause access to the fields to be difficult.
Danger of strong smaller systems
He explained that very strong but smaller systems that can cause heavy rain and stormy conditions over small areas are one of the major dangers that can occur right now. “For example, there are forecasts that fairly heavy rain may occur over Pretoria and the surrounding areas, as well as in the direction of Mpumalanga on 6 November in the late afternoon or evening. Very stormy conditions with more than 50mm of rain are possible, and hail and strong winds may also occur.
“On 7 November, heavy rain is possible over the northeastern Free State, Mpumalanga and Gauteng. On Monday 11 November, heavy rain may also occur in places over Gauteng and even over the south-eastern parts of Botswana.”
According to Van den Berg, the exact location where these systems occur is almost unpredictable and such a system can change position quickly. “However, it is important to note that these types of systems will occur in the following weeks with the start of the rainy season over especially the central to north-eastern parts of the country, as well as over the coastal areas of the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal .”
