A shipload of imported white maize is currently being unloaded in South Africa for the first time since March 2017 – after the drought of 2016-17.
A cargo of 23 700 tonnes of American white maize is currently being unloaded in the port of Durban from the ship African Baza, and according to the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS), another American shipload of 46 000 tonnes of white maize is expected in February.
The South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (SACOTA) attributes this import to the poor harvests last year, record high exports to Zimbabwe and record high prices.
By November 2024, the national Crop Estimates Committee placed the final crop estimates for white maize at 6.007 million tonnes (29.3% lower than the previous year) and yellow maize at 6.716 million tonnes (15.4% lower).
These stocks must be sufficient in the local crop cycle until March/April 2025 when the new crop, planted in November and December 2024, becomes available.
Dr André van der Vyver, executive director of SACOTA, says South Africa actually only has enough grain to meet its own needs, but usually supplies neighbouring countries such as Botswana, Namibia and others with grain.
“The drought also affected countries around us and there was strong demand, especially from Zimbabwe, for both white and yellow maize. By the end of February it was already clear that yellow maize, and possibly also white maize and soybeans, would have to be imported.”
It is expected that about 2.6 million tonnes of maize and maize products will be exported to Africa by April this year.
He says local prices have started to rise and by the end of April the first cargo of yellow maize from Argentina was unloaded in Cape Town. Yellow maize and soybean flour have been continuously imported from Argentina and Brazil since then, mainly by COFC and Seaboard Shipping. Ameropa is now importing the white maize.
A lot of yellow maize already imported
To date, 20 shiploads of about 518 000 tonnes of yellow maize have been imported and the first of two cargoes of American soybean flour of about 32 255 tonnes were unloaded in November. About 1 000 tonnes of soybeans were also imported from Ukraine.
Van der Vyver says as the looming shortages became clearer, prices continued to rise. By December yellow maize was R5 431/ton, up 43% from February 2024, and white maize reached a recent high of R6 670/ton, an increase of about 70%. He says for traders it is only possible to import if local prices become higher than the cost of importing.
Prices have since fallen slightly, but he thinks they will remain relatively high to encourage imports, which are likely to continue until the end of April. “Fortunately, good rains started falling shortly before Christmas, although there was damage to early plantings. After last year’s drought, it is not just the farmers, but everyone in the country, who are pinning their hopes on an above-average harvest.
“The availability of stock until the new crop is harvested will be determined by local demand in the coming months, exports to countries north of us, sufficient imports and how early harvesting can be done.”
According to him, there are indications that the maize industry will end the season at around 600 000 tonnes to 700 000 tonnes, which is hardly enough for a planned stock.
