By Lloyd Phillips
While average food price inflation last year was less than half of that in 2023, poor households in South Africa continue to struggle to afford a nutritious diet.
South Africa’s average food price inflation of 1.6% in November was the country’s lowest since October 2010. Last year’s average food inflation of 4.1% was nearly 63% lower than 2023’s average of 11%.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz’s chief economist, the slight increase to the 1.7% average for December 2024 resulted from price increases in the oil and fat, fruit, vegetable, sugar, sweet, and dessert categories. He says food price inflation flattened in the second half of 2024 due to the recovery in the supply of various food products.
“Vegetable prices were high in the second half of 2023 due to supply constraints caused by load shedding and related disruptions. The bird flu outbreak also limited egg supply, exacerbating price risks. The same applied to chicken meat.
“However, in 2024, the situation improved with the supply recovery. In 2023, grain prices increased after India’s rice exports ban. In 2024, India resumed its rice exports, which pushed prices down. Lower wheat prices also contributed to the flattening in grain-related product prices.”
AgriSA’s Center for Economic Excellence explains that the flattening of South Africa’s meat prices toward the end of last year was due to improved supply following the recovery from livestock disease outbreaks. However, higher fuel and electricity prices caused some food categories to rise.
“Regarding the future, food inflation prospects appear uncertain due to risks from volatile weather conditions in key producing areas and international factors such as oil prices and currency fluctuations. All of this plays a role,” says AgriSA’s chief economist, Kulani Siweya.
Sihlobo points out that white maize prices have risen recently due to drought conditions and strong demand from other Southern African countries during and since the 2023-24 summer production season. This causes grain-related food products to remain an “upward risk” for consumer inflation in the first half of 2025.
“Prices should return to moderate levels in the second half of this year as grain supply recovers due to favourable La Niña rains.”
In December, it cost a family of four R5,383.38 for the month to eat. This is according to the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity (PMBEJD), a non-governmental organisation that reports on the average cost of the household food basket of 44 food items to feed a South African family of four for a month. In 2024, it was R145.18 (2.8%) more than the same month in the previous year.
According to the PMBEJD’s assessment for the 19 working days in December 2024, the maximum national minimum wage for a general worker was R4 192.16. The issue is that minimum wage families also have other costs, including power and transport.
In this scenario, there is no possibility that a [minimum wage] worker can afford enough nutritious food for their family.
According to PMBEJD, the R530 child support grant in December was 33% below the food poverty line of R796 and 45% below the average cost of R968.56 required to feed a child a nutritious diet.
“The wage these workers earn is not only to support themselves but also to support the entire family,” states the PMBEJD’s assessment. These minimum-wage families also have other essential costs, including power and transport, that must be covered. “In this scenario, there is no possibility that a [minimum wage] worker can afford enough nutritious food for their family.”
According to PMBEJD, the R530 child support grant in December was 33% below the food poverty line of R796 and 45% below the average cost of R968.56 to feed a child a basic nutritious diet.
