By Alani Janeke
The South African Weather Service’s adjusted seasonal climate report for February to June indicates above-normal rainfall, specifically over the northeastern parts of the country, which is in stark contrast to previous predictions and is mainly due to the sudden drop in temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The report says below-normal rainfall is expected over the southwestern parts of the country, but as it is not yet that region’s rainfall season, no significant impact is expected. During the forecast period, minimum and maximum temperatures are predicted to be above normal nationwide, except in the southern coastal areas. This part of the country will likely experience below-normal maximum temperatures for the remainder of the summer.
According to the weather service, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has recently crossed the La Niña threshold and is likely to remain on the border of this threshold in the coming months. Current predictions are still uncertain, with multiple international models predicting different movements (either strengthening the La Niña system or returning to a neutral state). “South Africa is being cautioned about using ENSO in any important planning decisions, as it appears very volatile and unpredictable. The potential for La Niña to influence South Africa is also declining because summer is ending.”
Floods may occur
The expected above-normal rainfall conditions in most of the northeastern parts of the country will likely increase water levels during the predicted period. “These conditions could lead to flash floods in regions at risk of flooding or inadequate drainage systems. Additionally, above normal maximum and minimum temperatures could increase demand for cooling nationwide, except over the southern coastal areas where below-normal maximum temperatures are expected.”
The weather service expects that the above-normal precipitation will favour crop and livestock production conditions, especially in the northeastern parts of the country. “However, there is an increased risk of waterlogging (of crops) that could cause harvest damage in areas receiving excessive rainfall. Farmers in these regions are encouraged to implement soil and water conservation measures, ensure efficient drainage systems, implement proper water storage techniques and other appropriate farming practices.”
Furthermore, the weather service warns businesses and communities to take note of these possible climate conditions and make corresponding planning decisions.
The above-normal temperatures are expected to significantly increase heat exposure, potentially leading to heat stress and other heat-related health problems in humans and animals.
Increased UV exposure may result in a higher incidence of sunburn and other UV-related health issues. Additionally, elevated temperatures can accelerate the growth of pathogens, increasing the risk of foodborne illnesses.
“The public is advised to maintain good food hygiene, comply with local health guidelines, and take necessary precautions to manage heat exposure.”
The weather service will issue another adjusted climate report next month.
Click here for the full report.
