By Roelof Bezuidenhout

News from Australia, the biggest Merino wool grower in the world, is that wool prices are set to rebound dramatically over the next three years from a very low point in the cycle. Ironically, this forecast comes at a time when Aussie wool farmers are moving out of the industry.

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has predicted that the country will this season shear 63.2 million sheep, the lowest since 1903, when the national flock numbered 54 million. The clip will accordingly shrink to 279.4 million kilograms.

According to the online news and market intelligence service SheepCentral.com, the trends were driven by profitability decisions by farmers, and wool was losing. A spokesperson for Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) said that since AWI’s funding was tied to both production and price levels, its revenue would fall further and the drop in production nationally will create knock-on effects for processors.

The average Australian wool cut per head was forecast to be comparable with 2023/24, at 4.42 kg greasy (down 0.5pc). Tests showed small year-on-year changes in mean fibre diameter, staple length, staple strength (down 0.5 N/ktex), yield (down 1pc) and vegetable matter.

Meanwhile, mohair and wool farmers can expect to face more scrutiny. The most recent Textile Exchange Conference, held in Pasadena, California, underscored the need for South Africa’s wool and mohair farmers to stay informed about unfolding regulations that govern supply chains. This annual conference brings together leaders and experts from across fashion, textiles and apparel.

Within the next decade the whole supply chain is expected to be regulated, holding everyone from farmer to retail accountable for their sustainability practices. This means that third-party verification will increasingly play a role in proof of raw material origin and sustainability. As is the case with grape farmers whose end product might be fine wine, high fashion garments – and not the raw clips – are the final product of wool and mohair farmers.

According to Oritain, a proof-of origin company that was one of the sponsors of the conference, trade was moving towards digital product passports (DPPs). Simply tracking materials on paper or through digital supply chain mapping would not be enough for compliance. Already, forensic science was used to test the physical material or product to validate its claimed origin.

Similarly, relying only on new inputs was no longer viable. Circularity was not just about reducing waste but also about rethinking how raw materials were sourced, used, and returned to the supply chain. Textile-to-textile recycling maximises value from existing materials and cuts waste.

The conference also explored strategies needed to address the environmental, social and legislative challenges shaping the future of textiles, according to MohairSA. It focused on how integrating best practices for climate and nature into business operation could build resilience. Conversations centred on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adopting climate-smart practices such as regenerative agriculture. Key discussion points were restoring ecosystems and adopting farming methods that protect biodiversity.

By the end of 2026, all wool and mohair growers will be expected to have qualified for registration under the new Materials Matter Standard, which will audit all aspects of their farming practices with emphasis on animal welfare and sustainability under a changing climate. Already, soil samples are being taken in the Karoo to establish wool’s carbon footprint.