By Maile Matsimela
US President Donald Trump escalated global trade tensions by delivering on his campaign promise to impose tariffs on goods imported into the United States.
Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB, says Canada, Mexico, the EU and China were the most prominent countries facing punitive tariffs on goods heading for the US market, but the ripple effects will extend to many other countries.
China has responded by imposing new tariffs of 10% and 15% on US agricultural products, valued at an estimated US$21 billion. These tariffs, Makube says, are likely to make US agricultural products less competitive in the Chinese market due to higher prices, prompting China to seek alternative suppliers for meat, grains and oilseeds.
Pork and poultry
In the meat sector, pork and poultry are key Chinese imports, comprising 16% and 6,7%, respectively, of total US exports, valued at more than $1 billion and nearly $477 million in 2024, according to data from the US Meat Export Federation.
Makube says China has gradually reduced its reliance on US pork imports over several years as it has embarked on a massive herd rebuilding programme. This effort involved importing better genetics and technology to boost domestic production capacity.
“After peaking at 35% of total US pork exports in 2020, China’s share of US shipments slowed considerably to 16% in 2024,” Makube says. A similar trend was observed for poultry, where China’s share of US exports halved from 16% in 2020 to 7% in 2024 in volume terms, according to Trade Map data.
Beef and soya
Makube says total US beef exports to China were valued at nearly $2 billion, accounting for 17% of total US shipments. “However, beef exports also showed a declining trend, with volumes for 2023 and 2024 falling by 17% and 6%, respectively, year-on-year.”
In the case of soya beans, a critical raw feed ingredient for livestock, Makube warns that a potential reduction in Chinese demand for US soya beans could pose a downside risk to global prices.
He explains that the US accounted for 21% of global soya bean meal exports and 27% of soya bean exports, with China buying 52% of these in 2024.
Brazil’s soya bean crop will play a crucial role in determining price trends, as adverse weather conditions could limit the country’s output, heightening export competition.
Makube also notes that this shift presents an opportunity for South Africa to increase its meat exports – but much depends on how quickly the necessary protocols can be negotiated.
