By Nico van Burick
There is concern that flooding in areas such as Koedoeskop, Roedtan and surrounding regions in Limpopo will prevent the predicted number of hectares planted with cotton from being realised this season.
Dr Annette Bennett, CEO of Cotton SA, says the initial estimate of 14 127 hectares – predicted in January and early February – now appears to have been overly optimistic. This comes after even higher expectations in November, when plantings of up to 20 000 hectares were anticipated for the new season.
A strong harvest is still expected in the Northern Cape, Lower Orange River region and Vaalharts. Crops in North West, as well as small-scale farmers’ cotton harvests in Limpopo and KwaZulu-Natal, also show promise. Despite fluctuating international prices, cotton remains a profitable crop for most farmers, Dr Bennett says.
According to the February market report, the estimated planting area remains unchanged at 6 217 hectares under irrigation and 7 910 hectares on dryland, bringing the total to 14 127 hectares – significantly lower than last year’s 18 385 hectares. Flooding caused the loss of up to 2 000 hectares of dryland cotton.
The expected yield for cotton under irrigation is 4 456 kg seed cotton per hectare, and on dryland it is 985 kg per hectare. This should result in a total of 67 255 fibre bales weighing 200 kg, slightly revised upwards from January’s estimate of 66 919 bales. However, this is still significantly lower than last season’s estimated 90 118 bales.
Dr Bennett reports that small-scale production, from 3 470 hectares of plantings, is expected to yield 4 635 fibre bales. The Makhathini area, in particular, shows promising results following good rainfall. Small-scale harvests in Limpopo also look strong thanks to successful transplanting after an initial dry period. The main challenge now is effective weed control.
As for pricing, the New York Stock Exchange price, which sets the benchmark for South African prices, was 68,78 US cents per pound of fibre (R27,51/kg) on 3 March. The average international price, as indicated by the Cotlook A index, was 74,95 US cents per pound (R29,98/kg) on 5 March.
