South Africa’s meat prices remained stagnant in February 2025 

By Maile Matsimela

South Africa’s headline inflation remained sticky on the downside at 3.2% year-on-year (y/y) in February 2025, unchanged from the January level and below market expectations of 3.4%.

Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Business, says monthly consumer price inflation (CPI) nudged 0.9% month on month (m/m) on the back of the contribution from core inflation. 

“Although posting a mild uptick to 1.9% y/y in February, food inflation continued to trend below 2% in the past four months, which is a record low since January 2011. Gains in cereal products, fish and other seafood, fruits and nuts, and vegetables prices underpinned the recent uptick in food inflation outcomes,” said Makube. 

He said meat inflation however remained in the doldrums after posting negative growth from November 2024 to January 2025, further steadying in February 2025 at 0.0% y/y.

This, he says, reflects the early year downturn in demand as well as the increased product availability due to the higher livestock slaughter rate over the past three months to January 2025.

“A drill down into the meat inflation data shows a mixed trend with most beef and pork cuts declining, while lamb and mutton surprised on the upside relative to last year. In the case of chicken, whole birds saw a decline of 3% (-R 1.98/kg) y/y at R62.79/kg, while the highly traded individually quick frozen (IQF) portions jumped 3% (+R2.55/kg) to R96.32/kg,” explained Makube.

He added that the offal prices showed a mixed trend with gains for red meat categories, mainly beef and sheep meats increasing by 1% (+R0.61) and 3% (+R1.79/kg) y/y respectively at R50.84/kg and R65.95/kg.

“However, we saw further pressure on the chicken category with chicken giblets falling by 4% (-R1.72/kg) at R46.26/kg.” 

South Africa’s meat inflation continued to trail its global counterpart since July 2024. Makube further said global meat inflation as measured by the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was 4.9% y/y in February, but sharply below January’s 8.4% y/y as heavy supplies of chicken and pork from Brazil and the EU respectively weighed heavily on prices.

“On producer price index (PPI), the PPI for live animals and animal products declined for the fourth consecutive month at -10.1% y/y and -1.9% m/min January 2025. The PPI for live animals alone fell to -11.8% y/y and -2.5% m/m in January 2025.