By Maile Matsimela
South Africa’s food inflation is expected to remain volatile in the coming months due to instability on global markets and trading uncertainties.
The National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) observed the monthly rise in global wheat export prices was driven by tighter domestic supplies in Russia, which limited export volumes and shifted demand to alternative suppliers.
These dynamics, NAMC said, increased pressure on global prices.
NAMC reports that further contributing to these price increases were concerns over poor crop conditions in parts of Europe, Russia and the United States.
“Meanwhile, global maize prices continued to rise in February, mainly due to shrinking seasonal supplies in Brazil, deteriorating crop conditions in Argentina, and strong export demand for US maize. Prices of other coarse grains, including barley and sorghum, also increased. These global price fluctuations are expected to affect food prices in South Africa, particularly in import-dependent sectors. However, despite these pressures, South Africa’s inflation rate has consistently remained below the central bank’s target of 6% since June 2023.”
Furthermore, as of February 2025, the local price of white maize averaged at R5 797 per ton, marking a 15.0% decrease from January 2025. Similarly, yellow maize averaged R5 063 per ton, reflecting a 9.6% decrease compared to the previous month. Sunflower seed prices averaged at R9 501 per ton, indicating a 5.8% decline from the preceding month’s price.
Monthly comparison of prices between urban and rural areas for February 2025
Recent data released by Statistics South Africa reveals variations in prices for certain products when purchased in urban versus rural regions. Urban consumers allocated more of their budget towards Ceylon/black tea, which exhibited the most substantial price difference of R8.85, followed by maize meal (R3.26), peanut butter (R2.59), sunflower oil (R1.20), margarine (R0.91), white bread (R0.38) and brown bread (R0.33) in comparison to their rural counterparts. On average, urban consumers paid R1.14 more for these 11 food items. This information highlights noteworthy variations in food item costs across different geographical areas.
NAMC food basket: February 2025 vs February 2024
The cost of the NAMC’s 28-item urban food basket increased by 4.7% in February 2025 when compared to the same period last year, reaching R1 315.72.
When compared to the cost of R1 307.85 recorded in January 2025, the food basket increased by 0.6%.
Between February 2024 and February 2025, among these 28 items, nine witnessed price increases that exceeded the 6% inflation target set by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB).
NAMC reports that notable products in this category include instant coffee, which experienced a substantial price surge of 20.4%, followed by cabbage (19.7%), Ceylon/black tea (13.8%), apples (12.5%), dried beans (12.1%), bananas (11.7%), maize meal (9.4%), polony (7.9%) and peanut butter (6.1%).
NAMC reports when examining year-on-year price differences, the food group that contributed most significantly to observed food inflation was coffee and tea, experiencing a substantial increase of 17.2%.
“Following this was bean products, which increased by 7.3%, fruits by 6.0%, sugary foods by 5.6%, bread & cereals by 4.9%, vegetables by 4.2%, dairy & eggs by 2.8%, animal protein by 1.6%, and fats & oils by 0.6%.”
Reviewing month-on-month changes, fruits showed the most significant increase of 4.2%. This was followed by bread & cereals, which increased by 1.7%, then coffee and tea (1.1%), dairy and eggs (0.6%), sugary foods (0.5%), and fats and oils (0.2%). Conversely, animal products, bean products and vegetables decreased by 0.1%, 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively.
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