By Johann Bornman
The recent signing of the Expropriation Bill into law has ignited fierce controversy, and heated debate continues to resonate. For some perspective on the land reform issue, a thorough analysis reveals that about 84% of government’s target for the transfer of commercial farmland from white to black owners has already been met – more than is commonly recognised. Rash actions now would only serve the interests of radical factions.
The focus of the land debate is misplaced. On the one hand, good progress has been made in the transfer of land (despite recent slowdowns), and on the other hand, vast tracts of fertile farmland remain unused, even as people are going hungry.
With the transition to a democratic dispensation, South Africa entered a new era in 1994. For the agricultural industry, the changes have extended far beyond the geopolitical shifts that followed. Now, as in every previous round of the expropriation debate over the years, agricultural land is in the spotlight, but the solution lies elsewhere.
The greatest progress in land reform has been made with agricultural land. The goal that government set in the National Development Plan 2030 of redistributing 30% of agricultural land to black farmers by 2030 is achievable. Nearly 84% of this target has already been met. In future, however, progress will depend on economic participation.
Land reform and the need for access to land revolve around three key areas: urban spaces, agriculture, and the underdeveloped countryside or rural areas.
It is crucial to integrate the former homeland areas into the broader South African economy and ensure sustainable livelihoods for households in these regions. (See Table 1 for insight into the importance of a sustainable food supply.)
Table 1: South Africa’s population distribution and agricultural land per person
| Year | Total population | Urban population | % urban | Rural population | Agricultural land per person (hectares) |
| 1913 | 5 973 000 | 1 478 000 | 24,7 | 4 495 000 | 16,2 |
| 1994 | 39 620 000 | 22 000 000 | 56 | 17 620 000 | 2,5 |
| 2024 | 63 020 000 | 42 787 842 | 67,9 | 20 232 158 | 1,5 |
| 2030 | 67 208 000 | 47 919 000 | 71,3 | 19 289 000 | 1,4 |
| 2050 | 79 408 000 | 64 797 000 | 81,6 | 14 611 000 | 1,1 |
Land expropriation is neither necessary nor a solution for land reform. The focus should be on urban and township areas, which are central to the process, while agriculture plays a secondary role, as highlighted in a study by Agri Development Solutions.
Population growth and urbanisation
The South African population grew from 39,62 million in 1994 to 63 million in 2024 – a 59% increase. About 62% are 15–34 years old.
The urbanisation rate has risen from 56% in 1993 to 67,9% in 2024.
The population is expected to continue to grow. By 2030, it may reach 67,2 million (71,3% urbanised); and by 2050, 79,4 million (81,6% urbanised).
The pressure on socio-economic systems is self-evident, and is accompanied by an urbanised lifestyle change. By 2050, about 64,8 million people will live in urban and township areas.
In addition to the implications for a continued and sustainable rural environment, this migration also affects aspects such as available agricultural land, which has already shrunk by about 4,3% between 1994 and 2024.
Regarding the expansion of urban areas, 12% more land will be required by 2030, and 51,4% more by 2050, to maintain the same population density as in 2024.
With changing population numbers and demographics comes a demand for a sustainable food supply and services, with economic growth as the most important basis. Population growth inevitably puts pressure on agricultural land as the ratio of land to population deteriorates over time, as Table 1 shows.
Land reform: 1994 to 2024
South Africa’s agricultural industry must navigate multiple risks, with land reform being part of this evolving landscape.
Agriculture remains central to the country’s rural economy. According to Statistics SA’s Census of Agriculture 1993, out of a total land area of 122,5 million ha, agricultural land amounted to 97,04 million ha. Of this, 81,44 million ha was owned by commercial farmers; while the former TBVC states, self-governing territories and trust land covered about 15,6 million ha.
Over time, about 3,94 million ha were converted to non-agricultural use, leaving 77,5 million ha of agricultural land under white ownership before redistribution. (See Table 2 and Table 3.)
Table 2: Land ownership in 1994 (hectares)
| South Africa (total) | 122 518 143 |
| State-owned* Nature conservation, national parks, etc. * Forestry * Water Affairs * Defence * Correctional Services | 10 563 1537 448 764 1 809 416575 723 688 127 41 123 |
| Urban areas, towns, village, other | 11 357 935 |
| Remainder | 3 560 069 |
| Land with traditional tenure (adjusted), including agricultural land, according to the Department of Agriculture | 18 434 122 (15 597 785 TBVC land) |
| Agricultural land (total 1993) | 97 036 986 |
| Agricultural land with proprietary rights (Census of Agriculture 1993, adjusted) | 81 439 201 |
| Land use change 1994 due to urbanisation, mining, and expansion of protected areas and forestry | 3 943 523 |
| Privately owned agricultural land (basis for land reform) | 77 495 678 |
Table 3: Black land ownership, including land in former TBVC states and self-governing territories, in hectares (August 1994)
| Jurisdiction | Transitional National Development Trust | Total | |
| TBVC states | 10 234 256 | 172 214 | 10 406 470 |
| Transkei | 4 286 306 | 10 173 | 4 296 479 |
| Bophuthatswana | 4 439 033 | 114 831 | 4 553 864 |
| Venda | 708 897 | 4 887 | 713 784 |
| Ciskei | 800 020 | 42 323 | 842 343 |
| Self-governing territories | 6 608 753 | 1 021 550 | 7 630 303 |
| QwaQwa | 102 260 | 54 893 | 157 153 |
| KaNgwane | 363 889 | 8 666 | 372 555 |
| Gazankulu | 740 812 | 3 359 | 744 171 |
| KwaNdebele | 264 253 | 82 612 | 346 865 |
| Lebowa | 2 139 240 | 36 8448 | 2 507 688 |
| KwaZulu | 2 998 299 | 503 572 | 3 501 871 |
| Total | 16 843 009 | 1 193 764 | 18 036 773 |
Here’s a breakdown by province of the 15 597 785 ha of agricultural land in the category of former TBVC states, self-governing territories and trust land:
- Eastern Cape: 28,5%, or 4 451 790 ha
- KwaZulu-Natal: 23,2%, or 3 617 624 ha
- Limpopo: 20,5%, or 3 194 269 ha
- North West: 11,6%, or 1 809 262 ha
- Northern Cape : 10%, or 1 560 234 ha
- Mpumalanga: 4,5%, or 693 959 ha
- Free State: 1,2%, or 193 270 ha
- Gauteng 0,5%, or 77 377 ha
- Western Cape: None
Target of 30% in sight
Over the past 30 years, there have been 198 453 land transactions involving properties of 10 ha or more, totalling about 84,5 million ha at a combined value of R621 billion. An additional 35 million ha were transferred through land reform initiatives, including 11,5 million ha by commercial farmers and 11,1 million ha by government.
The target for land reform, as set by government in the National Development Plan 2030, is to transfer 30% of the agricultural land owned by white farmers to black owners by 2030.
Over the 30 years from 1994 to 2024, 19,534 million ha were redistributed. This figure includes:
- Commercial agricultural land purchased by the state: 2,36 million ha, plus 552 000 ha intended for non-agricultural purposes
- Land transfers and purchases with state support: 6,6 million ha
- Agricultural land purchased by black individuals without state support: 2,4 million ha
- Restitution in the form of financial compensation for agricultural land claims: 3,1 million ha
- Up to 4,5 million ha of agricultural land were restored to people of colour through restitution.
As shown in Table 4, land transfers currently account for 25,2% of the total, which is already 84% of the government’s 30% target.
In addition to the progress made in land reform, it is noteworthy that restitution through financial compensation, measured in hectares, exceeds the total amount of land purchased by the state for redistribution. It is also of note that agricultural land acquired by black buyers (without government assistance) is comparable to state acquisitions intended for redistribution.
| Table 4: Progress with land reform: 1994-2024 | |
| Commercial agricultural land purchased by the state | 2 363 642 ha |
| Agricultural land purchased by the state for non-agricultural purposes | 552 475 ha |
| Land purchased by black South Africans with state support (e.g. Land Redistribution for Agricultural Development programme, Settlement/Land Acquisition Grant) | 4 885 691 ha (agriculture) 1 717 262 ha (other land use) |
| Commercial agricultural land purchased by black South Africans without state support | 2 375 279 ha |
| Restitution of rights in agricultural land | 4 499 580 ha |
| Restitution in the form of financial compensation for agricultural land | 3 140 042 ha |
| Land sold by black individuals to white individuals | 742 713 ha |
| Commercial agricultural land acquired by black individuals | 19 533 971 ha |
Good progress with restitution
It is noteworthy that 83,7% of restitution in the form of financial compensation for land claims is concentrated in four provinces: 29,3% in Limpopo, 21,4% in Mpumalanga, 17,6% in the Eastern Cape and 15,5% in North West.
About 30,9% of restitution in the form of financial compensation occurred between 2017 and 2019. Since 2020, however, the pace has slowed significantly to averaging just more than 90 000 ha per year.
Regarding restitution of rights in land, 81,8% of the allocated hectares were distributed across four provinces, namely the Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and North West. The majority of these allocations – 61% – took place between 2007 and 2016.
Black ownership of agricultural land in 2024
The total available agricultural land in black ownership stands at 37,8%, which includes land in the former Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda and Ciskei, as well as trust and tribal land.
Table 5 highlights the progress with land reform since 1994, both in terms of area and land value. The data reveals that Gauteng (78,6%), KwaZulu-Natal (67%), the Eastern Cape (60,8%), Mpumalanga (59,7%) and Limpopo (43,7%) have made significant strides in land transfers in terms of area. The national average is 25,2%. Progress is also evident in North West (31,7%), the Free State (30,4%), the Northern Cape (14%) and the Western Cape (11,4%).
| Table 5: Restitution in the form of financial compensation for agricultural land | |
| Province | Hectares |
| Eastern Cape | 527 934 |
| Free State | 143 208 |
| Gauteng | 10 511 |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 158 205 |
| Limpopo | 941 210 |
| Mpumalanga | 721 779 |
| Northern Cape | 502 275 |
| North West | 50 688 |
| Western Cape | 84 232 |
| Total | 3 140 042 |
| Table 5: Black land ownership in South Africa: 1994 vs 2024 | |||
| 1994 (% hectares) | 2024 (% hectares) | Land value in 2024 (%) | |
| Western Cape | 0 | 11,4 | 7 |
| Northern Cape | 0 | 14 | 27,5 |
| Free State | 1,6 | 30,4 | 8 |
| Eastern Cape | 28 | 60,8 | 45,9 |
| KwaZulu-Natal | 45,4 | 67 | 56,4 |
| Mpumalanga | 10,6 | 59,7 | 80,7 |
| Limpopo | 38,6 | 43,7 | 85,3 |
| Gauteng | 0 | 78,6 | 73,7 |
| North West | 34,5 | 31,7* | 37,3 |
| Total | 14,9 | 25,5 | 43,3 |
*The decrease is attributed to a change in North West’s bord
In terms of value, or the percentage of money spent relative to the land value in each province, the national average for South Africa stands at 43,3%. KwaZulu-Natal is at 56,4%, Gauteng at 73,7%, Mpumalanga at 80,7% and Limpopo at 85,3%.
Beyond the high-potential land in the former homelands and trust and tribal areas, the analysis shows that historical consideration and lifestyle preferences play a role in black individuals’ decision to buy property.
Based on the historical performance of land reform, it is evident that the current support is sufficient to meet the stated objective by 2030. However, the unfortunate reality is that state funding has virtually dried up. As a result, the current redistribution pattern of 90 000 hectares per year comes as no surprise.
The resale trend
Over the past 30 years, the turnover of land sales in the commercial agricultural sector has been 1,1 times the amount of land traded, measured in hectares, despite farmland in the Karoo and Western Cape remaining in the same families for generations.
The sale of black-owned land indicates the following: In all 21% (of land transactions over the past 30 years), was re-traded, and 15,9% of transferred land.
Black private individuals traded 36,4% of their purchased agricultural land, and 48,9% of land acquire through land transfers.
A comparison of the prices for agricultural land over the past 10 years shows that white commercial farmers paid an average of R11 868/ha, the state an average of R8 985/ha, and black private buyers an average of R18 913/ha. A comparison of land prices paid by commercial farmers, Government and private black buyers proves that market-related prices were paid.
Assuming that land in the traditional areas and land transferred through transformation is largely utilised below its potential, it implies a loss in gross production value of up to R188,9 billion (or at least 29,1% of the potential) for the sector.
Johann Bornman is an agricultural property expert and chairman of Agri Development Solutions. He conducted a land audit of title deeds in collaboration with Landbouweekblad. He analyses all land transactions for African Farming’s sister publication Landbouweekblad on a weekly basis.
Also read:
‘Land reform cannot work unless we empower people to farm successfully’ – Nick Serfontein
African Farming Imbizo – 250 farmers gathering in Pretoria to find solutions for land reform and transformation in the sector
Matsamo CPA projects ‘a blueprint for land reform’
