By Jasper Raats
Farmers should prepare for the possibility of loadshedding this winter, the Centre for Risk Assessment (CRA) warns in its latest client report. Eskom managed to avoid loadshedding for 261 consecutive days last year, and the power grid has remained relatively stable in the first three months of this year, but the electricity supply system remains fragile, says researcher Anlu Keeve.
The report notes that although Eskom has undertaken maintenance at key power stations, it has added only limited new capacity to the grid. A rise in unplanned outages and a continued decline in the energy availability factor (EAF) point to a significant risk of renewed loadshedding as electricity demand increases during the winter months.
Although Eskom recently added 800 MW of capacity at Kusile Power Station, and expects a further 800 MW to become available at Medupi by the end of April, the overall resilience of its generating units remains low.
Eskom has confirmed that the loss of just 800 MW would be enough to trigger Stage-2 loadshedding, underscoring how precariously balanced the national grid is, the Centre for Risk Assessment (CRA) notes.
The report also highlights that Eskom’s unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) has consistently exceeded internal targets for more than a decade, with a sharp rise since 2020. This has been compounded by a high energy utilisation factor (EUF), which shows that power stations are being run close to full capacity in an effort to make up for outages – ironically leading to even more breakdowns.
According to the CRA report, Eskom’s EAF has dropped sharply from around 90% in 2004/05 to just 55% in 2023/24. This means nearly half of the utility’s installed capacity is unavailable due to unplanned breakdowns or maintenance.
The CRA warns that even though the system is currently stable, the rising trend in unplanned outages poses a threat. Unless this is reversed soon, the risk of loadshedding will increase significantly. The organisation urges all consumers to prepare for possible power outages during the upcoming winter months.
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