By Alani Janeke
Following harsh conditions last year, average to below-average rainfall this year can make conditions difficult again for wheat farmers in the winter-rainfall region.
First, the rain for the 2024 winter season arrived late, then a lot of rain fell, and then severe windy conditions caused damage in parts. Wheat farmers had to farm in challenging conditions in 2024.
Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural weather expert, says rain forecasts for the winter rainfall region do not look good at this stage.
The largest contributing regions to South Africa’s wheat harvest are the two dryland areas in the Western Cape, namely the Swartland and the Rûens. The other important production areas are the irrigation areas of the Northern Cape and Free State. Dryland wheat production in the Free State almost completely disappeared, with only sporadic plantings. “The risk to the latter area became very high, with altered rainfall patterns and less rainfall in the important spring months of September and October,” explains Van den Berg.
He says that although parts of the winter rainfall region had fairly good rains in the past week or two, this rain was more from a summer rainfall system. More light deposits are possible in the next two weeks. The moisture from these deposits, along with the previous deposits, may be sufficient for planting. “There are still indications of average to below average rainfall for the months of May to August and even September across the winter rainfall region.”
Winter wheat under irrigation
The main risks to winter wheat under irrigation in the Free State and Northern Cape are frost damage as well as heatwave conditions in the spring, especially in October and the first part of December. Van den Berg says precautions may be able to mitigate the effect of late frost:
- Plant the right cultivars, but also plant according to the last planting date for the particular cultivar. This may help, although nowadays frost occurs so late that plant date manipulation alone is no longer enough to prevent damage.
- If possible, low-lying areas should not be planted; these areas should be reserved for summer crops later in the season.
- Farmers can also experiment with chemical treatments and correct fertilisers, although the risks must be weighed carefully. Watering at the right time and in the right way can also help to limit frost damage. Wind machines can also be used but are probably not economically justifiable for a relatively low-income crop such as wheat.
- Producers in the Free State who want to plant wheat under dryland conditions can consider this, especially in areas where soils are currently very wet. However, it is still vital to plant as late as possible to reduce the risk of frost.
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