By Alani Janeke
Precipitation of 40mm or more until April 25 will heighten the risk of additional flooding, especially in the catchment areas of the Vaal and Bloemhof dams, while snowfall is also possible.
A cut-off low-pressure system can cause rain over the central and eastern regions until Friday before rain conditions temporarily clear up until the first week of May.
Precipitation between 20 and 40mm, or even more, may occur until April 25, particularly in the catchment areas of the Vaal and Bloemhof dams. “With water levels already very high across wide areas, this can increase the danger of floods if heavy rain occurs over large areas. Although less rain is expected in the catchment area of the Gariep Dam, there is also a flood danger if heavier than expected precipitation occurs with both the Gariep and Vanderkloof dams being full and overflowing,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.
Van den Berg says that although predictions can change, weather models indicate that further rain may occur over large parts of the country in the first week of May. “Even as far west as the interior of the Northern Cape as well as southeastwards over most of the Eastern Cape and the Garden Route.”
Light precipitation of less than 5mm is possible around April 29 and May 4 and 5 over the winter rainfall region. “Further light precipitation is possible later in May. Chances for heavy rain during May currently look slim, especially because weather systems are still tending toward summer rainfall patterns. There also remains a chance that below-average rainfall may occur during mid-winter when the normal winter rainfall pattern is usually established.”
Snow, low temperatures, and frost
Along with the wet conditions, the cold temperatures across the country can cause snow on Lesotho’s mountains and parts of the Drakensberg. Van den Berg says there are especially chances for snow on the eastern Drakensberg from 23 April to 24 April. “Little or no snow may occur in low-lying areas. There is a chance that more rain than snow will occur due to the cut-off low-pressure system moving across the country. The chances for heavier snow are greater in the first week of May.”
Minimum temperatures near the freezing point or lower may occur from 29 April to 3 May in the colder parts of the country, such as Zastron and Smithfield in the Southern Free State, as well as Barkly East and Molteno in the Eastern Cape. This can cause frost, especially in the low-lying areas. In the winter rainfall area, temperatures in Ceres can also drop to this low during this time.
“Over the longer term, however, the chances are good that the first heavy frost that can cause damage may only occur in the latter part of May. Further rain expected in May can also ensure that frost damage is delayed and limited.”
Van den Berg says the coldest part of winter will again be in July and August. “The heavy rain has also ensured that cooling takes place early and less heat energy is stored in the earth for later release.”
Detrimental to livestock
Over the next few weeks, the expected wet and cold conditions can harm livestock.
“Many small livestock farmers’ autumn lambing time falls within the next few weeks, and the conditions can be very detrimental to the condition of lactating female animals, but especially for newborn lambs and even calves,’ warns Van den Berg.
Conditions for feed production
Wet conditions are also detrimental to feed producers. Many producers of lucerne or other hay-making crops are experiencing significant damage due to the rain and humid weather.
“In some cases, in the Free State and Northern Cape, more than two cuttings of lucerne have already been lost,” according to Van den Berg. “With the humid conditions prevailing as well as expected further rain, it also doesn’t look like dry conditions will occur for at least the next two weeks, and this shortens the time for feed production before winter.”
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