By Nico van Burick and Suzanne Venter
A few sunny days appear to be coming for farmers anxious to harvest their summer crops.
According to the weather forecast from grain trading house Silostrat, rain over the interior may cease this week, with the subsequent sunny days helping to dry out the lands.
Dr Annette Bennett, Chief Executive Officer of Cotton SA, says cotton farmers must steel themselves and make the best of what they have. “There was severe flood damage in the areas of Koedoeskop, Thabazimbi and Makoppa, which have become important for irrigated cotton, and the industry will experience losses in these areas.
“Some dryland areas, however, received good rainfall and we hope that yields there will be above average. Cotton can, even in a period of low international fibre prices, deliver a good local income due to the weak rand against the dollar.”
According to Cotton SA’s market report for the end of March, a harvest of 66 102 bales of fibre (200 kg bales) is expected. This is 27% less than the anticipated 90 118 bales from the previous season. Only 14 440 ha of cotton were planted this season, with 5 975 ha under irrigation and 8 465 ha on dryland. Last year, 18 385 ha were planted, including 7 226 ha under irrigation and 11 159 ha on dryland. Farmers are warned about diseases and quality problems due to the wet conditions. Good yields in the dryland areas, where sufficient rain has fallen, are hoped to offset the losses in some regions.
Problems with peanuts
Peanut farmers are also struggling because the peanut seeds are starting to sprout. They are advised to fall back on manual labour to minimise damage.
A Stella farmer who prefers to remain unnamed reports that some plantings have reached 150 days or more and are ready to be harvested. Leaf spot and other diseases cause the plants to die even faster. According to him, mechanically extracting the beans on rainy days is risky and difficult to manage. One option is to remove the plants from the ground by hand and stack them in piles – some farmers are already doing this.
Crop estimate possibly higher despite wet conditions
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of Agbiz, states that the excessive rainfall in April in the summer rainfall area poses a significant risk for grain and oilseeds, particularly regarding the quality of crops planted early in the season.
“We are particularly concerned about sunflowers and soybeans, which were planted early in very wet areas. We are also concerned that fertiliser application was ineffective in areas with excessive rain. Nevertheless, we believe it will be an excellent season in terms of the size of the harvests, although the quality must be closely monitored.”
He says that when the National Crop Estimation Committee (NCEC) announces its third estimate for the season on 30 April, it should indicate harvest expectations since most crops will have passed the pollination phases.
He emphasises that the expectations thus far look good and that the NCEC estimated South Africa’s grain and oilseed production at 18 million by the end of March.
This is 16% higher than the previous season. This applies to maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, peanuts, sorghum, and dry beans. He suggests there is even a possibility that the estimate may be higher at the end of April. We have noted that the forecast from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) office in Pretoria is somewhat higher for certain grains than that of the NCEC.
The USDA estimates the commercial maize crop at 15.3 million tons, which is 20% higher than the previous season. This compares to the NCEC’s estimate of 14.6 million tons, reflecting a 13% increase. However, “the biggest risk remains the weather.”
The heavy rain in some cotton-producing areas has also created challenging crop conditions.
Also read:
