By Alani Janeke
More rain may occur over the Vaal Dam catchment area from the beginning of May, while a cold front, which has been moving over the southern parts of the country since Monday, could cause sharp drops in temperatures, frost, and possibly snow.
The heavy rain that fell over large parts of the country last week has contributed to the rapid rise in dam and river levels across the country. Among others, the Vaal and Orange River systems are in flood, and farmers across a wide area are struggling to harvest their summer grain crops. The question is whether more rain will fall soon.
Weather models indicate that rain may occur from May 1 to 3, especially over the catchment area of the Vaal Dam. Still, the precipitation appears relatively light, ranging from less than 10 mm to 20 mm,” says Johan van den Berg, an independent agricultural meteorologist.
“Further rain is not predicted for at least two to three weeks. However, conditions can change rapidly, and farmers there should remain in a state of readiness for the next week or two.”
Cold and winter rain
Meanwhile, a cold front is moving across the country, which may cause light rain over the winter rainfall area from April 29 to May 1. Heavier precipitation is possible over the Eastern Cape interior and the Garden Route. “More than 20 mm is possible in places like Gqeberha, Mossel Bay, Uniondale, Oudtshoorn, and even Graaff-Reinet,” says Van den Berg.
Sharp temperature drops may occur from May 1 over the Eastern Cape, the Southern and Eastern Free State, and the adjacent parts of Mpumalanga. “In Ficksburg, the minimum temperature could drop to -4°C, in Barkly East and Reitz to -2°C, in Bethlehem to -1°C, and in Standerton to 1°C. Also, in the winter rainfall area, Ceres may experience minimum temperatures as low as 1°C, Robertson 2°C, and De Doorns 3°C,” says Van den Berg.
Temperatures may recover by May 5. The daytime temperatures in parts of the winter rainfall area can rise rapidly to 30°C or even higher until approximately May 20, after which a drop may occur again.
The temperatures in the summer rainfall area will also recover starting from the second week of May, but the nighttime temperatures will remain cool to cold. “Reasonably moderate weather is expected for most of May. Considerable sunshine may occur, which will help the lands and grain harvests to dry out.”
Snow
The forecasts at the end of last week indicated that widespread snow could occur over the Drakensberg and the surrounding areas. However, the latest forecasts suggest that snow may only occur over the highlands of the Eastern Cape, as well as the southeastern parts of the Drakensberg, from May 1 to 4. Currently, it appears that only light snowfall is expected.
Van den Berg says heavy snow typically occurs only in the latter part of winter, particularly in July and August. “Snow in April or early May is extremely rare in non-traditional areas. It snowed at least twice over the Drakensberg in April this year, although it was limited to certain spots and was not widespread. There is a good chance this year that reasonably heavy snow may indeed occur later in the winter if it gets colder because the air moisture is relatively high.
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