By Maile Matsimela
This dynamic snapshot offers essential data for stakeholders, facilitating informed decision-making throughout the agricultural value chain.
The FNB AgriMetrics Weekly Trends Report, authored by Senior Agricultural Economist Paul Makube, provides a detailed analysis of price trends, production volumes, and financial indices for livestock, fruits, vegetables, grains, and other agricultural commodities in South Africa.
The report highlights price changes, supply dynamics, and year-on-year (y/y) fluctuations, offering key insights for decision-making in the agricultural sector.
LIVESTOCK MARKET
Beef Market
- Producer prices (30 April 2025):
- Class A: R65.89/kg (unchanged w/w, +18.1% y/y)
- Class C: R49.65/kg (-1.4% w/w, +15.0% y/y)
- Weaner calves (live weight): R37.56/kg (-0.6% w/w, +16.3% y/y)
- Notable trends:
- Class A prices had minimal weekly fluctuation, while Class C dipped slightly.
- Weaner calves demonstrated significant year-on-year growth due to increased demand.
- Import parity rose 1.6% week-on-week and 4.7% year-on-year to R57.17/kg.
Sheep Market
- Producer prices (30 April 2025):
- Class A: R104.08/kg (-0.7% w/w, +22.2% y/y)
- Feeder lambs: R45.07/kg (-0.8% w/w, +19.5% y/y)
- Mutton: R65.98/kg (+0.6% w/w, +18.6% y/y)
- Key insights:
- Class A prices fell slightly, while mutton and import parity improved.
- Consistent year-over-year increases reflect rising demand for lamb and mutton.
Pork Market
- Producer prices (30 April 2025):
- Porker: R32.85/kg (-3.0% w/w, +6.1% y/y)
- Baconer: R32.73/kg (-3.0% w/w, +7.2% y/y)
- Highlights:
- Both porker and baconer prices dropped over the week but remain positive on a year-over-year basis.
- Import parity increased modestly by 1.3% week-over-week but remained nearly unchanged year-over-year.
Poultry Market
- Producer prices (30 April 2025):
- Fresh whole birds: R37.38/kg (+0.3% w/w, +5.7% y/y)
- Medium frozen whole birds: R34.87/kg (-0.7% w/w, -1.3% y/y)
- IQF pieces: R33.98/kg (+0.1% w/w, +7.3% y/y)
- Observations:
- Fresh and IQF poultry prices remained stable over the week, bolstered by strong demand.
- Import parity for US leg quarters decreased significantly (-5.1% w/w) due to weakening external costs.
FRUIT MARKET
Prices and Volumes
- Key performers (y/y growth in prices):
- Bananas: R10.05/kg (+41.6%), Avocados: R18.17/kg (+34.3%)
- Apples: R10.41/kg (+15.8%), Grapes: R32.14/kg (+12.5%)
- Underperformers:
- Mangoes: R28.87/kg (-1.9%), Pears: R38.99/kg (-0.6%)
- Volume Changes:
- Avocado volumes rose by 12.54% w/w, while other fruits such as mangoes (-6.76%) and pears (-6.11%) recorded declines.
VEGETABLE MARKET
General Trends
- Noteworthy price increases:
- Lettuce: R21.01/kg (+121% y/y, +5% w/w)
- Carrots: R10.32/kg (+25% y/y)
- Butternuts: R5.57/kg (+54% y/y)
- Declining prices:
- Cabbages: R3.84/kg (-3% y/y), Tomatoes: R13.92/kg (-26% y/y)
- Production volumes:
- Potato supply increased significantly (+13% w/w), whereas lettuce volumes decreased by 11%.
RAW FEED INPUTS: GRAIN AND OILSEEDS
Maize
- White maize (WMAZ):
- R4 334/ton (+6.4% m/m)
- Yellow maize (YMAZ):
- R4 203/ton (+5.0% m/m)
- International parity:
- CBOT Corn increased moderately (+3.3%)
- Key observations:
- Both local and international maize futures indicate rising prices due to global supply concerns.
Oilseeds
- Sunflower:
- Price increased to R9 158/ton (+2.3% m/m)
- Soybeans:
- R7 715/ton (-0.1% m/m), with the slight decline indicating a short-term market correction.
OTHER COMMODITY MARKETS
Sugar
- ICE Sugar No. 11:
- Jul-25 at 17.25 US cents/lb (-3.5% w/w, -7.5% m/m)
- Indications of weaker international demand or supply recovery
Fibre
- Cotton Prices:
- Cotton No. 2 Jul-25 is priced at 66.02 US cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 2.0% week-over-week and 2.9% month-over-month.
- Derived SA cotton remained stable at R32.52/kg
CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK
- Key findings:
- Livestock prices demonstrated resilience, with beef and lamb attaining significant year-over-year gains, although pork experienced modest week-over-week setbacks.
- Fruit markets showed strong growth in prices for bananas and avocados, along with volume declines in several categories.
- Vegetable prices showed mixed performance, primarily influenced by demand-supply mismatches.
- Grain and oilseed prices are rising, driven by local and global factors.
- Outlook:
- Livestock prices will likely remain buoyed by export demand and recovering feed costs. Fruits and vegetables may experience price adjustments due to fluctuating seasonal volumes.
- Input costs for farmers (feed, oilseeds) may increase, potentially putting pressure on profitability margins in the medium term.
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