By Jasper Raats
Although April is typically a quiet month in the macadamia industry, this year’s market conditions have revealed deeper fermentation beneath the surface.
According to Cobus Kok, managing director of the online macadamia trading platform MSM, global economic uncertainties and changing consumer preferences are creating new trends in the industry, with smaller unshelled nuts now in demand, particularly from China.
One of the biggest uncertainties in the market is the anticipated export tariffs to America, which are set to take effect on 8 July.
“As in Donald Trump’s previous term, buyers in America stocked up their inventory earlier this year in anticipation of the tariffs,” says Kok. This so-called “supply action” led to an increase in macadamia imports to America of $18 million (almost R329 million) in January and February, which is nearly $6 million (R109.5 million) more than in the same period in 2024.
However, the market for shelled nuts declined slightly in April, indicating that buyers are now waiting to see if and how the tariffs will be applied. This has led to uncertainty in pricing and transaction volumes.
Smaller nuts for China
On the other hand, the 18th Nut & Dried Fruit Food Expo in Hefei, China, demonstrates that there remains significant interest in macadamias in that country. Chinese buyers currently prefer smaller unshelled nuts such as NIS20-22, which can be shelled more affordably locally. Style 1S is particularly popular, increasing demand for smaller nuts and significantly reducing the price difference between NIS20-22 and the larger NIS22+ since December 2024.
A European trader confirmed that this demand continues to rise despite the higher prices. This is partly driven by China’s import tariffs on American nuts, which make macadamias from other producing countries, such as South Africa, more attractive.
At the same time, sales to this market may become more appealing for processors in South Africa if the demand for shelled nuts does not recover quickly.
“The wait-and-see approach can only continue for so long,” says Kok. “Market pressure and cash flow require action, especially with the holiday season stock that needs to go out soon for Chinese New Year.”
The industry is, therefore, holding its breath for more clarity soon. As the busy months in the macadamia industry (from May to December) approach, there is hope that the remainder of 2025 will meet the industry’s expectations – or perhaps even exceed them, says Kok.
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