By Nico van Burick
After the recent droughts and animal diseases, the financial recovery of some value chains and regions will take longer than that of others.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of Agbiz, says he remains optimistic about South Africa’s agricultural prospects for 2025 but notes that it may take some farmers longer to recover financially.
For some areas, mainly where grains and oilseeds are grown, it will take time to fully recover financially from the pressure of the previous season’s midsummer drought. Excessive rainfall in April this year could also have damaged the quality of crops, which could have an additional financial impact.
“When it comes to livestock, there are still farmers trying to recover from the recent animal disease outbreaks, while new outbreaks have also hit others. Animal diseases will greatly increase the economic pressure on cattle farmers, especially in the current circumstances where consumers cannot afford much meat and exports are crucial to sustainability.”
Sihlobo says that these and other factors are leading to the labour market’s failure to meet expectations at the start of the year. In the first quarter of this year, jobs in primary agriculture increased by 1% (since the last quarter in 2024) to 930 000.
It is still well above the long-term average of 799 000 jobs. Crop production, game and hunting were the subsectors that led to the increase in the first quarter. However, on an annual basis, there was a 1% decrease compared to the first quarter of 2024.
The provinces where the declines occurred in the first quarter of this year are the Eastern Cape, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga. By contrast, there was a slight rise in the Western Cape, Northern Cape and Limpopo.
He warns that small towns, heavily dependent on jobs in agriculture, will suffer the most if the labour market does not recover quickly. “The emphasis should, however, remain on long-term problems, such as the deficiencies in the ports, poor rail and road transport, crime, animal diseases and poor municipal services.
“In addition, it could mean a huge boost to jobs and productivity if the state issues its 2.5 million hectares of land with title deeds to carefully selected beneficiaries, provides assistance with financing and enters into partnerships with commodity organisations.”
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