By agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo
Many crops and value chains have shown dramatic progress in recent years. Their exemplary progress should inspire further growth in this sector.
I often write about South Africa’s soybean success story, whose production increased from 67 700 tonnes in the 1993-94 production season to an expected 2,3 million tonnes in 2024-25. This, in turn, has been driven by an increase in the demand for high-protein food, particularly poultry products.
But soybeans aren’t the only success story in South Africa’s vegetable oils cluster. Canola is also an agricultural success story.
Since South African farmers planted the crop commercially on 17 000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 165 750 hectares in 2024-25. For the new season of 2025-26, the farmers plan to increase the area to 166 500 hectares.
Like soybeans, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings is a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake. South Africa is now a net canola exporter, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.
There has been a switch from traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola because of the firm demand and the price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop. Hence, production is primarily in the Western Cape, a winter rainfall region in South Africa.
The farmers intend to plant 166 500 hectares, up by 0.5% from the previous season. If we assume relatively favourable weather conditions and a decent yield, applying a five-year average yield of 1,89 tonnes per hectare, South Africa could harvest 314 685 tonnes, up 9% from the previous season. This could be a fresh high.
Admittedly, it is still too early to tell with certainty where the canola crop harvest could be and whether farmers will successfully manage to plant the area they intend to till. The key determinant will be the weather conditions, amongst other things. Fortunately, the weather has turned positive, promising some Western Cape showers in the last two weeks of May. Under this assumption, it is fair for one to remain optimistic.
Placing the current weather forecasts aside, I think it’s fair to say that canola is one of the success stories of South Africa’s agriculture, belonging in the same category as the success of the soybean industry, and many of our fruits.
From now on, the objective is to see increases in various commodities like canola and general improvement in agriculture in the remaining parts of the country that haven’t been part of the South African agricultural success story, like the former homelands.
But for that to materialise, we need coordinated support and effective collaboration between the government and business. The government will need to do its part to improve land governance, while leaning on commodity associations for support in unlocking the agricultural value of these regions at the periphery of South Africa’s agricultural success story.
This is an important step, not only for crops and fruits, but also for livestock and the poultry industries, which are already the key value chains with better penetration by participants in the former homelands regions of South Africa.
Again, as I have said several times, the effort to realise this ambition does not require new planting. We already have the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan (AAMP), which is broadly embraced by agricultural stakeholders and other social partners and was co-created by all.
The AAMP seeks to improve South Africa’s agriculture by unlocking various hindrances in key value chains and takes a commodity-specific approach. Importantly, the AAMP is also clear on what value chains could thrive in multiple regions. What is left now is for it to be fully implemented.
My book, A Country of Two Agricultures, also advances this ambition and clearly states South Africa’s policy approaches to drive progress in the sector.
Therefore, the success of South Africa’s canola industry should inspire what this sector could achieve.
