Global meat production shows varied performance across different sectors in 2025, according to Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial.
By Maile Matsimela
“We’re seeing modest changes in global meat production this year, with beef production showing a marginal decline of 0.2% year-on-year while chicken and pork production are projected to grow by 2% and 0.2% respectively,” explains Makube.
The overall meat exports picture appears cautiously positive with a slight improvement of 0.6% year-on-year anticipated. However, Makube points out a concerning development for American poultry producers: “US chicken export forecasts have been sharply revised downward by 3.7% year-on-year. This substantial reduction stems primarily from the persistent and widespread avian influenza outbreaks that have plagued production facilities across America”
The bird flu challenge
The impact of avian influenza extends beyond America’s borders, affecting global markets and supply dynamics. “The spread of avian influenza (bird flu) has created ripple effects throughout the global poultry industry,” Makube notes. “Not only has it hampered US export capabilities, but other major exporters like Brazil are also experiencing limitations due to disease outbreaks.”
According to Makube, pork exports are similarly facing challenges: “Forecasts indicate declines from both US and EU markets throughout 2025. These reductions reflect a combination of disease pressures, trade tensions and changing consumer preferences in key import markets.”
Price movements across meat categories
“May 2025 saw a notable surge in meat prices across various categories, driven by a combination of increased demand and constrained supply,” reports Makube. “Beef prices demonstrated particularly strong year-on-year gains, with contract beef class A prices increasing by 23.4% and class C prices rising by 20%.”
Makube has observed: “The price trajectory for pork, mutton, lamb, and poultry has generally trended upward, though some month-on-month pressures were observed in the pork and baconer categories due to seasonal supply shifts. These seasonal fluctuations highlight the ongoing importance of timing in livestock marketing decisions.”
Feed cost trends bring relief
In what Makube describes as “a welcome development for livestock producers”, yellow maize and soybean prices have eased somewhat from their 2024 highs. “This moderation in feed input costs has improved margins across the sector, providing some financial breathing room during a challenging period,” he says.
“The improved feed cost situation is underpinned by positive harvest outlooks,” Makube explains, “with maize production expected to increase by 14% year-on-year and soybean production projected to rise by an impressive 26%. Sunflower harvests are also indicating better supply levels compared to previous years, further supporting the outlook for livestock feed availability and affordability.”
Producer price inflation shows uptick
Makube has noted a significant change in inflation patterns: “After months of negative trends, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for live animals and animal products rose significantly in early Q2 2025. This uptick signals elevated costs for producers, reflecting the complex interplay of input costs, disease challenges, and market demands.”
“At the consumer level, meat inflation has also increased, particularly for certain beef cuts such as brisket and chuck,” says Makube. “This trend reflects the pass-through of higher production costs as well as strong consumer demand in specific market segments.”
Global meat inflation trends
“The global meat market has seen inflation rise by 4.3% year-on-year in April, primarily driven by increases in bovine and ovine meat categories,” Makube reports. “Interestingly, poultry inflation has shown signs of easing, creating a divergent pattern across different meat types.”
According to Makube, “These trends reflect the complex interplay of global supply chains, regional production challenges, and evolving consumer preferences.”
Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
Makube identifies several ongoing concerns for the sector: “Export challenges stemming from avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks remain key risks for the livestock sector as we move through 2025. These disease pressures continue to shape trade flows and influence production decisions across major exporting nations.”
Despite these challenges, Makube sees reasons for cautious optimism: “The reductions in feed costs and a relatively benign inflation environment provide a favourable outlook for producer margins and consumer demand in the medium term. However, seasonal supply changes, such as weaning-related increases in certain livestock categories, may pose short-term risks to livestock prices.”
“As we navigate through 2025, the livestock industry continues to demonstrate its resilience in the face of multiple challenges,” concludes Makube. “Producers who maintain flexible management strategies, keep a close eye on disease prevention, and time their market participation effectively stands the best chance of success in this dynamic environment. While the sharp reduction in US chicken exports highlights the vulnerability of even major producers to disease outbreaks, the broader meat production landscape continues to adapt and evolve to meet changing global demands.”
