By Maile Matsimela
New research using Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations’s (FAO) upgraded Adaptation, Biodiversity and Carbon Mapping Tool (ABC-Map) reveals alarming projections for global agriculture. Major crops including wheat, coffee, beans, cassava and plantain could lose up to 50% of their optimal growing land by 2100 due to climate change impacts, according to the enhanced geospatial application.
Coffee production in major growing regions appears particularly vulnerable, with projections showing sharp declines by century’s end. While crops like maize and rice might temporarily find new suitable regions, they too face potential decline under high-emission scenarios as the century progresses.
“Given the increasingly erratic weather and extreme events, including droughts, extreme heat and floods, farmers, policymakers and technicians need to know if the crops, investments or projects they are considering will work or if they need to adjust and consider other crops or more adaptation measures instead,” said Martial Bernoux, FAO Senior Natural Resources (Climate Change) Officer.
The ABC-Map application, an open-source tool based on Google Earth Engine and global datasets, now provides location-specific projections for crop suitability until 2100 under different climate scenarios. Users can input a location and crop type to view detailed suitability scores across various time periods and emission scenarios.
These findings stem from a study titled “Have crops already reached peak suitability: Assessing global climatic suitability decreases for crop cultivation,” commissioned by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), conducted by Finres, and funded by the French Development Agency (AFD).
The upgraded tool serves as a critical resource for climate-resilient agricultural planning, enabling stakeholders to assess potential climate-related risks for agricultural systems and develop appropriate adaptation strategies. Planned enhancements for 2024 include new indicators for livestock heat stress and crop water requirements, further expanding the tool’s capabilities.
Launched in 2024 as part of the COP28 Agriculture, Food and Climate National Action Toolkit, the ABC-Map promotes holistic environmental actions in agriculture. It helps countries meet their obligations under the Rio Conventions while strengthening national capacities to prepare for climate-related shocks to agriculture.
As climate challenges intensify, this tool represents a vital step toward ensuring sustainable food production systems in a changing world, integrating adaptation, biodiversity, and carbon considerations into agricultural planning and policy.
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