Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
We are currently struggling with foot and mouth disease in South Africa, and a few more cases have been reported in various regions of the country.
Of course, this raises several questions. First, from a consumer perspective, the question is whether red meat is safe and what prices will be in the coming months.
The brief answer to this is that, yes, beef products are safe, and consumers should not be concerned. In terms of prices, unlike what some might have imagined – a possible increase in beef prices – we may see the opposite.
Here’s the thing: South Africa is generally a net exporter of beef products. When we are hit by foot-and-mouth disease, as we are now, key markets temporarily suspend imports, leading to a slight increase in domestic supplies and downward pressure on the red meat market.
Second, the economic costs to beef farmers will be immense, as they are suspended from importing and must continuously feed their livestock.
We were emerging from another period of foot-and-mouth disease and rebuilding our exports. Now, with another temporary closure of exports and the fact that local demand is also relatively weak, one can expect increased cost pressures on the red meat industry.
You see, animal and plant health, in general, deserves serious attention. This is the bedrock of a thriving agricultural industry and its export strategy. The success of South Africa’s agricultural export strategy over the past few decades, which has seen the value of exports grow from US$2.4 billion in 2001 to US$13.7 billion in 2024, speaks to the effectiveness of the controls implemented during that period. But there are now weaknesses.
In recent years, South Africa has experienced frequent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, avian influenza, and African swine fever. These suggest two challenges: first, the growing weaknesses in the country’s biosecurity controls and the potential impact of climate change, which can lead to frequent disease outbreaks due to extreme events. These challenges are not unique to South Africa.
In recent years, we have seen various outbreaks of African swine fever in China’s pork industry, as well as avian influenza in Europe, the U.S, the UK, and South America. Animal health is a global challenge, not a uniquely South African problem.
However, as a country with ambitions to expand exports of red meat and other livestock products, South Africa will need a robust approach to control disease spread and surveillance for potential risks.
Importantly, South Africa should also continue reviving vaccine production in various entities, such as the Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP), which has recently experienced some performance and governance difficulties. This is not a new insight; a biosecurity report for 2022 was crafted in response to the spread of animal disease and to strengthen South Africa’s capabilities. The report, which was done in collaboration with the private sector, made various recommendations for the government.
Moreover, the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan also addresses the livestock and poultry industries, as well as the importance of disease control. The task ahead is immense, as the challenge persists.
However, the key is that the sector puts a more focused effort in this area and leverages both academic and private sector capabilities to ensure that South Africa is in a better position regarding animal disease.
Anecdotally, it also appears that the changing climate is leading to more disease outbreaks than in the past, which again calls for South Africa to devote more resources to addressing the challenge.
There also needs to be sufficient capital for the regulatory bodies monitoring imports, so that swift actions can be taken to minimise risks when some of the trading partners are affected. Indeed, regulators must always make such decisions independently, after carefully assessing the risks.
Moreover, the biosecurity efforts should not be limited to livestock and poultry. While these industries have faced frequent challenges, plant health is another area requiring consistent monitoring. There must be continuous surveillance on crops and various fruits.
As with livestock, collaborative efforts with academia and the private sector in these areas must continue. There are already fruitful partnerships with scientists from some commodity associations and the government. Such collaborations should be nurtured as they remain central to South Africa’s agricultural success.
Another vital dimension is the agility in registering vaccines, agrochemicals and genetics. The changing environment means that the innovation of scientists and breeders must also be faster. But that will not be the end.
The regulators must still satisfy themselves independently of any agrochemical, vaccine, or genetically improved plant. This process also requires an even greater amount of human capital to handle the anticipated increase in requests and demand in the new environment.
Ultimately, the success of South Africa’s agriculture in delivering a national food-secure country that we enjoy, with nearly a million jobs in farming and exports of about US$13.7 billion, hinges on biosecurity.
Therefore, this area must continue to be a priority, not only in words but also in efforts. The responsibilities lie with both the private sector and the government.
