Market Pulse: SA’s agricultural sector continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience

By Maile Matsimela

Amidst the changing tides of international markets and local climatic variations, South Africa’s agricultural sector continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with notable price movements across livestock, grain and horticultural sectors. This week’s agrimetrics report, compiled by FNB Commercial’s Senior Agricultural Economist Paul Makube, presents a comprehensive overview of the nation’s farming health.

The livestock sector shows vigorous gains

The beef market has witnessed remarkable year-on-year price increases, with Class A prices soaring by 31.8% to R73.35 per kilogram compared to the same period last year. This represents a weekly increment of 3.4%.

“The robust performance in the beef sector reflects the ongoing recovery from previous drought conditions and strong export demand,” remarked Makube. “Producers who maintained their herds through challenging periods are now reaping the rewards of improved market conditions.”

Class C beef similarly demonstrated substantial growth, registering a 35.6% year-on-year increase to R58.98 per kilogram, with a noteworthy weekly gain of 6.9%.

The sheep sector has not lagged behind, with Class A prices climbing by 27.2% year-on-year to reach R109.24 per kilogram. The mutton market registered a 23.7% annual increase, settling at R71.89 per kilogram. Feeder lambs, however, experienced a modest 2.7% weekly decline, though maintaining a 10.8% year-on-year advantage.

In the porcine domain, porker prices increased by 2.1% week-on-week to R33.55 per kilogram, while baconer prices remained unchanged at R32.38 per kilogram. Both categories showed positive year-on-year growth of approximately 5.9%.

Poultry markets remained relatively stable, with fresh whole birds recording a marginal 0.5% weekly increase to R39.54 per kilogram, representing a healthy 14.9% annual growth. The individually quick frozen (IQF) category showed modest weekly growth of 0.2%, but impressive annual growth of 20.5%.

Grain and oilseed markets demonstrate fortitude

The futures market for grains and oilseeds on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange presents a picture of strength, particularly in white maize (WMAZ) and yellow maize (YMAZ), which showed month-on-month increases of 6.9% and 3.8% respectively for September 2025 contracts.

“The grain sector is benefiting from improved global demand and some concerns about production in other major producing regions,” observed Makube. “While local production appears satisfactory, the international market dynamics continue to support our domestic prices.”

Sunflower seed futures similarly demonstrated robust performance with a 5.9% month-on-month increase for September 2025 delivery, while soybean futures recorded a more modest 1.4% growth.

Wheat futures, however, showed a slight contraction of 0.3% month-on-month for September 2025 delivery, settling at R6 311 per ton.

Horticultural sector presents mixed fortunes

The vegetable sector presented a varied tableau, with notable price movements across major produce categories. Potatoes registered an 8.76% week-on-week price increase to R5.76 per kilogram, although this remains 5.05% below last year’s prices. Butternuts similarly showed a 5.16% weekly increase to R6.02 per kilogram, commanding a remarkable 67.22% premium over last year’s prices.

“The horticultural sector continues to be influenced by seasonal factors and weather patterns,” Makube said. “The substantial year-on-year increase in certain vegetable prices, particularly tomatoes and carrots, reflects both production challenges and strong consumer demand.”

Indeed, tomatoes, despite a 6.88% weekly decline to R12.99 per kilogram, maintained a substantial 92.33% year-on-year price advantage. Carrots similarly showed a 67.95% annual price increment despite a 5.87% weekly reduction.

Cabbage experienced the most significant weekly decline of 25.99%, settling at R3.13 per kilogram, yet remains marginally higher than last year’s prices. Lettuce prices contracted by 11.18% week-on-week to R17.26 per kilogram but remained 82.70% above last year’s levels.

In the fruit sector, pears demonstrated the strongest weekly performance with a 12.30% price increase to R53.32 per kilogram. Apples showed a modest 1.64% weekly gain to R9.66 per kilogram, while avocados increased by 6.11% to R18.02 per kilogram.

Conversely, bananas declined by 6.54% to R6.86 per kilogram, representing a 10.3% reduction compared to last year. Mangoes experienced an 8.74% weekly price contraction but maintain a substantial 106.4% annual price advantage.

Fibre market maintains steadiness

The wool market indicator settled at R173.80 per kilogram, showing marginal movement from the previous week’s R173.35. Certified 19-micron wool registered at R190.86 per kilogram, while 21-micron and 22-micron wool settled at R180.99 and R180.34 per kilogram respectively.

“The wool market remains relatively stable despite global economic uncertainties,” Makube noted. “Quality considerations continue to drive pricing, with premium being paid for certified wool meeting stringent specifications regarding vegetable matter content, tensile strength and staple length.”

The cotton market showed South African derived prices at R30.61 per kilogram, with futures contracts displaying modest month-on-month contractions ranging from 1.2% to 3.2%.

Outlook and considerations

“The agricultural sector is demonstrating commendable resilience in the face of various challenges, from input cost pressures to climate variability,” Makube concluded. “The diversity of South African agriculture continues to be a strength, allowing different sectors to offset each other’s cyclical movements.”

For producers, the current market dynamics underscore the importance of quality management, market timing and diversification strategies. The substantial year-on-year price improvements across multiple categories suggest a generally favourable environment, though input cost management remains critical to preserving margins.

Weather patterns and international market developments will continue to exert significant influence on local agricultural markets in the coming months, necessitating vigilant monitoring and adaptive management strategies from producers.