By Alani Janeke
Heavy rainfall brought flooding to parts of the winter rainfall region during the first week of July, and more wet weather is expected through the end of the month. Small-stock farmers, in particular, are being warned of a heightened risk of frost lasting until late October.
Over the past three weeks, central and western parts of the Western Cape experienced significant rainfall, while the eastern parts, particularly the Southern Cape, received less. Following weeks of cloudy weather, the Western Cape had some sunshine this week. Rain may return around 11 July, but it is expected to be lighter and confined to the central and south-western areas.
According to independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg, heavier rainfall is likely from 15 July, with the period between 17 and 21 July expected to bring more than 30mm to much of the winter rainfall region, except in the Southern Cape.
“It appears the rain pattern will begin to shift southwards from August, extending to the Overberg, the Southern Cape and nearby inland areas,” he says.
Mixed Outlook for Summer Rainfall Region
The summer rainfall region has also seen some rain in recent weeks, but the outlook for further rainfall in the coming months remains weak. This will be welcome news for grain farmers currently harvesting, many of whom are still battling muddy conditions, Van den Berg says.
Longer-term forecasts suggest below-average rainfall over the central to eastern parts of the country until at least November, and over the western parts until December. But with neutral to weak La Niña conditions forecast for summer, average to above-average rainfall is likely to return by mid- to late summer Van den Berg says.
Frost Alert
Minimum temperatures across the southern and central interior are expected to remain low until at least early August. “Frost is regularly forecast across most of the Free State, the Mpumalanga Highveld, North West, southern Gauteng, much of the Northern and Eastern Cape, as well as the western and southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the northern interior of the Western Cape, Van den Berg says.
The risk of sporadic frost persisting into October is particularly high in the Free State, Northern Cape and parts of the Eastern Cape.
It is especially important for small-stock farmers planning to shear in spring to keep a close eye on short-term weather forecasts, Van den Berg says.
In parts of Limpopo, frost may occur until mid-July, after which the risk declines. Meanwhile, maximum temperatures across the summer rainfall region are expected to rise rapidly from September, with sporadic heatwaves possible in October and November.
