The latest agrimetrics analysis compiled by Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, reveals a complex landscape for South African agricultural markets in the week ending 4 July 2025. The comprehensive weekly trends report provides crucial insights into livestock, fruit, vegetable, and commodity futures markets, painting a picture of an agricultural sector navigating both opportunities and challenges.
By Maile Matsimela
Livestock Markets
South Africa’s livestock sector continues to demonstrate resilience, with beef markets showing particularly strong year-on-year performance. According to Makube’s analysis, Class A beef producer prices reached R81.02 per kilogram, representing a substantial 45.2% increase compared to the same period last year, despite experiencing a slight weekly decline of 0.6%.
The sheep market exhibited similar patterns, with Class A mutton prices at R105.07 per kilogram, marking a notable 21.0% year-on-year increase. However, the sector experienced some weekly pressure with a 0.9% decline. Makube’s data indicates that contract pricing for sheep products, including fifth quarter components, reached R104.52 per kilogram, maintaining strong annual growth of 20.5%.
Pork markets present a contrasting narrative, with porker prices at R34.07 per kilogram showing modest annual growth of 6.9% but facing significant pressure on import parity pricing, which declined 13.0% week-on-week to R48.10 per kilogram. This disparity highlights the ongoing challenges facing the pork industry amid international competition.
The poultry sector demonstrated stability with fresh whole birds priced at R39.10 per kilogram, though experiencing slight weekly softening of 0.5%. Annual growth remains healthy at 15.3%, suggesting sustained domestic demand despite international market pressures.
Feed Input Costs
Makube’s analysis of raw feed inputs reveals mounting cost pressures that could impact livestock profitability. JSE grain and oilseed futures show mixed movements, with white maize (WMAZ) for September 2025 delivery reaching R4,827 per ton, representing a 2.8% monthly increase. Yellow maize (YMAZ) exhibited more moderate movements at R4,248 per ton for September delivery, declining 1.6% month-on-month.
Sunflower seed futures experienced significant monthly gains of 5.0%, reaching R9,730 per ton for September delivery, while soybean futures softened 0.7% to R7,332 per ton. These divergent trends in feed inputs create complex cost dynamics for livestock producers, particularly those in intensive production systems.
Fresh Produce Markets
The fresh produce sector, as analysed in Makube’s comprehensive market review, displays characteristic seasonal patterns with some notable exceptions. Vegetable markets showed significant price variations, with tomatoes experiencing dramatic movements reaching R13.97 per kilogram, up 30.6% week-on-week and 64.3% year-on-year.
Potato markets demonstrated more stability at R5.63 per kilogram, with modest weekly gains of 7.2%, though annual pricing remains under pressure with a 6.8% decline compared to the previous year. Onion pricing at R6.86 per kilogram reflects the ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with weekly declines of 8.3% and annual drops of 15.8%.
Lettuce markets stood out with significant weekly gains of 14.5%, reaching R16.86 per kilogram, representing a 47.3% annual increase. This performance reflects both seasonal supply constraints and sustained consumer demand for fresh leafy vegetables.
Fruit Markets
Makube’s fruit market analysis reveals the complexities of South Africa’s export-oriented fruit industry. Apple prices at R8.12 per kilogram experienced weekly declines of 11.9% but maintained strong annual performance with gains of 37.7%. The volume dynamics show interesting patterns, with apple volumes declining 3.6% year-on-year despite strong pricing.
Avocado markets faced significant pressure with prices at R14.32 per kilogram, down 16.2% week-on-week and 6.4% annually. The challenging avocado market conditions reflect both domestic oversupply and export market competition.
Grape markets showed extreme volatility at R38.26 per kilogram, declining 15.3% weekly and facing dramatic annual pressure with a 53.5% price drop. Volume data reveals the structural challenges facing the grape industry, with dramatic volume declines of 72.7% week-on-week.
Mango markets exhibited seasonal patterns with prices at R32.07 per kilogram, experiencing significant weekly volatility with a 47.0% decline, though this reflects normal seasonal dynamics as the harvest period concludes.
Grain and Oilseed
The grains and oilseeds complex, as detailed in Makube’s futures analysis, demonstrates South Africa’s increasing integration with global commodity markets. JSE wheat futures for September delivery reached R6,395 per ton, showing monthly gains of 1.2%, while December futures softened to R6,245 per ton.
Sunflower seed futures continued their upward trajectory with September contracts at R9,730 per ton, reflecting strong global oilseed demand and domestic supply constraints. Soybean futures showed more measured movements with September delivery at R7 332 per ton, down slightly from previous levels.
The relationship between local and international pricing remains crucial, with US corn import parity providing important price discovery mechanisms for local markets. September CBOT corn futures translated to R2 824 per ton on an import parity basis, showing monthly declines of 7.0%.
Fibre Markets
Makube’s analysis of fibre markets provides insights into South Africa’s textile raw material sector. The wool market indicator reached R12.08 per kilogram after recent market recesses, while premium grades showed strong performance with 19-micron wool at R14.90 per kilogram.
Cotton markets demonstrated the challenges facing the fibre sector, with South African derived cotton at R30.76 per kilogram, while New York cotton futures showed more modest pricing at $1.49-$1.55 per kilogram for various delivery months. The significant disparity between local and international cotton pricing reflects transport costs, exchange rate impacts, and local market dynamics.
Sugar Markets
International sugar futures, as tracked in Makube’s analysis, show the ongoing volatility characteristic of global soft commodity markets. ICE Sugar No. 11 futures for October 2025 delivery traded at 16.13 US cents per pound, experiencing weekly declines of 1.5% and monthly pressure of 5.2%.
The sugar market outlook reflects global production uncertainties, changing consumption patterns, and evolving trade relationships. These international dynamics directly impact South African sugar producers and consumers through import parity pricing mechanisms.
