Drought drives record grain imports from the US

By Nico van Burick

Last year’s severe drought in parts of Southern Africa caused a sharp decline in maize and soya bean production, driving up food inflation and creating economic pressure. In response, the United States’ Foreign Agricultural Service in Pretoria stepped in to assist, and the US supplied maize and soya beans valued at $140 million (about R2,49 billion) to help meet food needs in the region.

GM Crop Import Agreements and Regulatory Compliance

The South African government and agricultural industry have worked together to streamline the approval process for importing genetically modified (GM) crops, according to Dirk Esterhuizen, senior agricultural specialist at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in South Africa.

South Africa only permits the import of GM maize if the specific cultivars match those already approved for local use. The approval processes for GM maize and soya beans were finalised in November and September 2023, respectively.

Aligning GM crop approvals between different countries is a complex process, as today’s genetically modified cultivars often involve stacked genes – multiple traits combined into a single variety, says André van der Vyver, executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (SACOTA).

Despite the complexity, he emphasises the importance of having more than one international supplier.

Streamlining the approval process resulted in Southern Africa importing more cereals and oilseeds from the US over the past year than at any time in the last three decades.

“These imports have not only supported food security and strengthened long-term trade relationships, but have also delivered significant economic benefits to the US agricultural sector,” says Dirk Esterhuizen, agricultural economist for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in South Africa.

“They have highlighted the critical role the US agricultural sector can play in addressing food security challenges in other parts of the world.”

Esterhuizen says according to the latest US trade data, about 300 000 tonnes of maize and 165 000 tonnes of soya beans were exported to Southern African countries – including Angola, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe – between May 2024 and April 2025. 

He believes this trade momentum could lead to stronger commercial ties and open up further growth opportunities in the future.

Recovery Outlook and Production Forecast

The scale of US grain imports during the 2024–’25 marketing year highlights the severe impact the drought has had on grain production in Southern Africa, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz.

South Africa had to import more grain into its coastal regions to maintain exports to neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana, he says. Fortunately, the situation is improving. Maize production is recovering, with an estimated 7,65 million tonnes of white maize and 7,13 million tonnes of yellow maize – 14,78 million tonnes in total – expected this season, which is 15% more than last year’s harvest.

What is also important, Sihlobo notes, is that this output exceeds South Africa’s annual domestic consumption of about 12 million tonnes. This means South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.