Stock theft – statistics show progress but also ongoing problems

By Lloyd Phillips

While it is encouraging that livestock thefts have shown a decline since 2019, the successful recovery of stolen livestock has also declined.

There have been both predictable and unexpected peaks since 2019, as well as levelling off and sometimes outlier numbers in the quarterly statistics of nationwide livestock theft and the recovery of stolen cattle, sheep, and goats.

On closer inspection, the information points to progress but also to the ongoing problems, says Willie Clack, senior lecturer at the University of South Africa’s School of Criminal Justice School of Criminal Justice and Livestock Theft Expert. In a recent report, he compared the police’s national figures from 2018–2019 to 2024–2025, relating to the theft and recovery of livestock. 

“A general decline in reported incidents of livestock theft suggests that targeted intervention, improved community awareness, and intensified measures are beginning to yield results,” says Clack.

According to Clack, it is particularly striking that the exceptionally high incidence of livestock thefts has decreased from one season to the next. For example, where the period from October to December was historically a high-risk time for livestock thefts, it has become increasingly less conspicuous compared to the rest of the year. 

However, he warns that the real situation may be skewed by apparent tendencies, such as:

• a decrease in the reporting of incidents due to a lack of trust in law enforcement officers;
• long distances to rural police offices;
• the fear of retribution by criminals;
• cultural resolution of disputes that are preferred over formal legal processes; and
• livestock owners who are tired of reporting cases, as the police are considered ineffective and unhelpful.

Livestock theft statistics from 2018 to 2025

 Cattle:

• Highest: 17 000 animals (Oct-Dec 2019-’20)

• Lowest: 12 200 animals (Jan-March 2024-’25)

• Average: 14 433 animals per quarter

Sheep:

• Highest: About 35 000 animals (Oct-Dec 2020-’21)

• Lowest: Below 20 000 (Jan-March 2024-’25)

• Average: About 25 000 per quarter

Goats:

• Highest: About 16 000 (Oct-Dec 2022-’23)

• Lowest: Below 10 000 (Apr-Jun 2020-’21)

• Average: 13 500 animals per quarter

Source: Willie Clack and SAPS

Clack continues: “The decline in thefts is undone by an alarming reduction in the recovery of stolen livestock, especially as regards sheep and goats. Cattle still have the highest recovery rate thanks to their economic value and identifiable characteristics. Yet even this rate shows a steady downward trend.”

He explains that the overall decline in the recovery of cattle, sheep and goats is mainly a reflection of the increasing cunning of livestock theft syndicates, “many of whom have first-hand knowledge and exploit systemic gaps in the rural safety infrastructure”.

In provinces such as KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, the recovery of stolen livestock is further hindered by geographical, economic and logistical challenges.

Livestock recovery statistics 2018 to 2025

Cattle:

• Highest: 30.4% recovery rate (Jan-Mar 2019-’20)

• Lowest: 20.8% recovery rate (Oct-Dec 2024-’25)

• Average: 26.0% recovery rate (over whole period)

Sheep:

• Highest: 25.6% recovery rate (Jan-Mar 2024-’25)

• Lowest: 14.0% recovery rate (October – December 2024-’25)

• Average: 17.6% recovery rate (over whole period)

Goats:

• Highest: 55.6% recovery rate (Jul-Sept 2019-’20)

• Lowest: 10.0% recovery rate (Jul-Sept 2020-’21)

• Average: 18.4% recovery rate (over whole period)

Sources: Willie Clack and SAPS

Based on his latest findings, Clack highlights the need for a “multifaceted approach” to combat South Africa’s livestock theft problem.

“While improvements in surveillance, branding and rural policing are crucial, community-driven strategies and seasonal planning are equally important. Combating livestock theft requires a coordinated effort between law enforcement, agricultural stakeholders and decision makers, with special attention to vulnerable smallholder and communal livestock owners.”

Angus Williamson, chairman of KwaZulu-Natal Red Meat Producers’ Organisation (RPO), says he agrees with Clack’s findings and recommendations.

“My concern, however, still remains the low conviction rate of livestock thieves. Unfortunately, we see a tendency for these people – after little or no consequence for their crimes – to resume their livestock theft activities.”