The harvesting of maize was still about a month behind the normal schedule in the first week of July due to the season starting late and then a lot of rain up until April.
By Nico van Burick
According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of Agbiz, you would still see farmers harvesting maize in most regions should you travel through the country in this icy weather, which is somewhat unusual for this time of year.
He states that when the Grain Information Service (SAGIS) announced its producer yields, it revealed that producers had yielded 1.4 million tonnes of maize to commercial silos in the last week of June. This was the ninth week for yields in the new season, bringing the total to 5.8 million tonnes.
“If this total volume is compared to yields in the same period of the previous season, it is 24% lower due to the season’s late start and delays in the harvesting process. There is still a lot of work ahead when one considers the 2024/25 harvest is estimated at 14.8 million tonnes, which means a 15% increase on an annual basis, mainly due to an expected increase in yields.”
He points out that there are quality problems, especially with white maize, whereas things seem better with yellow maize. The true extent of the problem will only be apparent when the bulk of the harvest is in silos.
On the positive side, he says, we continue to be net exporters of maize as the harvest will be well above the annual consumption of some 12 million tonnes. “While the quality problems in some parts will be detrimental to farmers’ profitability, there is enough supply for the local market, and potentially lower prices could have benefits for the grain component of the inflation basket.”
Quality Concerns Emerge in Detailed Yield Analysis
A report from Grain SA indicates that the yield gap compared to the previous season in the tenth week has narrowed somewhat. In terms of white maize, yields in the tenth week were still 12% behind the 2024/25 season’s yields. In the previous season, 60% of the production estimate had already been yielded by 5 July 2024, while the current season stood at 30.7% by July 4. To make the production estimate a reality, an average of 123 060 tonnes per week will need to be yielded in the next 42 weeks.
There is a 15% decrease in yellow maize yields compared to the previous season up to and including week 10. By 5 July 2024, 63% of the estimated harvest had already been yielded, while only 41.9% had been yielded in the current season by 4 July. On average, 92 834 tonnes must be yielded weekly in the next 42 weeks to reach the production estimate.
In terms of quality, says Marguerite Pienaar, an economist at Grain SA who helped compile the report, the adverse weather conditions that damaged kernels and prevented producers from harvesting played a significant role in the low percentage of yielded WM1. Diplodia and fusarium seem to be the main reasons for the downgrades.
Last year, 98% of white maize was graded as WM1 by week 10, compared to only 67% in the current season. WM2 was only 2% at this time last year, while it is 27% this year.
In the case of yellow maize, YM1 dropped to 89% in the tenth week, and YM2 stood at 11%. Last year, the percentages were the same in week 10.
As for soybeans, the harvesting process looks significantly better. According to the report, 2 496 million tonnes of the estimated production have been yielded so far. This is 95.3% of the total estimated production after the estimate was adjusted upward to 2 684 million tonnes. The 5-year average has already been exceeded, and a yield rate of 3 465 tonnes per week is needed to meet the production estimate.
About 82% of the sunflowers’ estimated production rate has been yielded, but this has slowed down to below the 5-year average. The yields are 594 948 tonnes of the estimated 727 800 tonnes.
