The dramatic surge in yellow maize and soybean prices is sending shockwaves through South Africa’s poultry industry, threatening both producer profitability and food security for millions of households that rely on affordable chicken meat.
By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming
According to the Agro-Food Chains Unit (T. Ntshangatse, T. Ningi, C. Dempers, L. Dladla, M. Lubinga and V. Thindisa) at the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC), feed costs account for approximately 70% of poultry production expenses, meaning that when maize and soybean prices spike, the entire industry feels the pinch immediately.
The poultry meat industry contributed R68.8 billion to South Africa’s agricultural economy during the 2023/24 period, representing a remarkable 172.2% increase from 2010/11 levels. However, this growth faces significant headwinds from volatile input costs.
The research indicates that yellow maize contract prices reached unprecedented levels above R5 000 in December 2024, the highest recorded in the past decade. Meanwhile, soybean production values have surged 727.7% from R1.8 billion in 2010/11 to R14.9 billion in 2023/24.
The NAMC analysis reveals the interconnectedness between feed ingredient prices and poultry costs is undeniable. When maize prices climb, chicken prices follow within months, creating a predictable but challenging pattern for producers and consumers alike.
Retail prices across chicken products have increased substantially, with individual quick-frozen portions, fresh chicken portions and whole chickens all experiencing price rises between 42.8 and 49.2% from October 2017 to October 2024.
The research team emphasises that these price increases hit low-income households hardest, as poultry represents one of the most affordable protein sources available to South African families. The ripple effects extend beyond immediate affordability concerns, affecting nutritional access across vulnerable populations.
According to the NAMC findings, research indicates that a 1% depreciation in the South African rand correlates with a 1.16% increase in maize prices, highlighting how currency volatility compounds the challenge facing poultry producers.
The team’s analysis shows that South Africa’s reliance on imported soybeans has emerged as a critical vulnerability for the sector. Global supply chain disruptions, experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing geopolitical tensions, have amplified price volatility beyond local producers’ control.
The research further indicates that dependency on imported feed ingredients leaves the industry exposed to international market shocks that local producers cannot influence. When soybean prices surge in global markets because of weather events or trade disputes, South African poultry farmers absorb those costs directly.
This vulnerability mirrors challenges faced internationally. According to the NAMC team’s comparative analysis, similar patterns have emerged in Nigeria, where rising maize and soybean meal prices have negatively impacted egg production, and Brazil’s experience demonstrates how tightly synchronised feed ingredient prices become with poultry market dynamics.
Feed Costs Threaten Food Security
The research highlights that the sector’s importance extends beyond economics to employment and nutrition. According to the South African Poultry Association data cited in the analysis, the poultry industry accounts for 13% of total employment in the agricultural sector, with black farmers contributing 1 638 jobs.
The NAMC team stresses that when feed costs drive up chicken prices, the implications extend far beyond industry profitability to encompass access to affordable protein for millions of South Africans. This represents a fundamental food security challenge that requires urgent attention.
The research shows that the agricultural sector’s gross value of production reached R448.4 billion between July 2023 and June 2024, with animal products contributing 43.2% of the total. The team’s analysis indicates that poultry’s 35.5% share of the animal products subsector underscores its critical role in national food systems.
The NAMC research identifies that addressing these challenges requires coordinated intervention focused on reducing import dependency and stabilising feed prices. According to the team’s recommendations, supporting domestic production of soybeans and sunflower represents a crucial first step towards greater self-sufficiency.
The analysis suggests that interventions aimed at enhancing domestic feed production capabilities must be prioritised. This includes supporting local soybean and sunflower cultivation to reduce reliance on volatile international markets.
Beyond traditional approaches, the research indicates that innovative solutions are emerging. The team’s analysis points to insect-based proteins as offering promising alternatives for diversifying feed rations while potentially reducing costs and environmental impacts.
The NAMC findings reveal that strategic policy interventions cannot be delayed. According to the research, climate variability continues to compound regional maize shortages, and exchange rate fluctuations and international trade disruptions create ongoing uncertainty for producers.
The team warns that without coordinated policy action to stabilise feed prices and promote local production, both industry sustainability and national food security face significant risks.
The research demonstrates that successful intervention requires understanding the complex interplay between domestic production capabilities, international market dynamics and currency stability. According to the NAMC analysis, solutions must address immediate price volatility while building long-term resilience through diversified feed sources and enhanced domestic production capacity.
The team’s research shows that as feed costs continue driving poultry price increases, the urgency for comprehensive intervention grows. The analysis indicates that stakes encompass industry profitability, employment stability and fundamental food security for South African households.
According to the NAMC team’s conclusions, the time for strategic action is now. Every month of delay means higher costs for producers and higher prices for consumers who depend on affordable protein sources.
The research indicates that the path forward requires sustained commitment to domestic feed ingredient production, exploration of alternative protein sources and policy frameworks that enhance the sector’s resilience against external shocks. The team concludes that only through coordinated effort can South Africa secure a stable, affordable poultry supply for its growing population.
