Differences are already apparent in how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is developing this year in the central Pacific Ocean compared to last year. Weather models already suggest the development of La Niña conditions, which could potentially be good news for the upcoming summer.
By Alani Janeke, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
The forecasts for heavy rain, particularly in the northeastern parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, appear promising for the coming months. Extremely severe floods are also currently happening in southern Vietnam.
“This indicates that warmer water is accumulating in that area and is very typical of more La Niña-leaning climate patterns,” says Johan van den Berg, independent agricultural meteorologist.
This type of setup is often a positive sign of good rainfall conditions, which can also occur in Southern Africa, but typically later in the season.
Local weather forecasters observe, among other things, forecasts for the eastern and northern parts of Australia as part of forecasts for Southern Africa, because there are regular correlations.
Australian Predictions
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) longer-term forecasts on its < http://www.bom.gov.au/ > website, the likelihood of above-average rainfall over northern and eastern Australia between August and October is very high. The probability for these above-average rainfalls is indicated as being between 60% and 80%.
The ENSO is a good indicator of the interaction between sea surface temperatures and the overall climate systems in the central part of the Pacific Ocean. Although sea surface temperatures are roughly normal, the ENSO is slightly La Niña-leaning, which is similar to the situation in the same period in 2024.
The difference is that the slight La Niña tendency for 2024 originated from an El Niño system and increased rapidly in July 2024, while the 2025 situation remained neutral to La Niña-leaning from February onwards.
USA Maize Production
The United States plays a significant role in the global maize market. As a result, production in that country has a considerable impact on international prices, which also affects the local market and our farmers.
Approximately 50% of maize plantings in the United States are currently in their sensitive pollination stage, and around 20% are in the early dough stage. By July 10th, roughly 75% of the plantings were in good to excellent condition. So far this year, the American season is performing better than any of the previous four seasons.
“Considering that about 5% more maize was planted in 2025 than in 2024, the chances are good that America could achieve a record harvest,” according to Van den Berg.
At sensitive growth stages, weather conditions over the next four to six weeks will be crucial in determining the final harvest yield of the maize.
Weather models indicate that the western regions of the United States could experience drier and warmer conditions starting in early August. While the severity is difficult to predict, there is a possibility that the western areas will encounter more challenging weather than they have in the past two months since planting.
