Agricultural industries expected to be hardest hit when America’s 30% trade tariff takes effect in eight days fear the worst. Although they remain hopeful, the only feedback now is a deafening silence.
By Michelle van der Spuy, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Neither the American government, to which some exporters in industries including citrus have submitted trade proposals, nor the South African government is giving any clear indication whether a favourable trade agreement will be signed before 1 August.
Industry bodies in the citrus, wine, and table grape sectors have told African Farming the economic impact will be “terrible”.
Citrus Industry
Thousands of jobs in the citrus industry are at risk. Entire towns in the Western and Northern Cape that rely on the American market could be ruined before new markets for their products are established.
Dr. Boitshoko Ntshabele, Executive Head of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), says approximately 7 million cartons, each weighing 15kg and valued at $1.9 billion, are exported to the United States annually.
“The increased import tariff will make our citrus uncompetitive in the American market and deal a devastating blow to small towns in the Western and Northern Cape. These provinces export only to America.”
The industry’s exports to that country support 35 000 local jobs. It is estimated that four or five people depend on the income from one job, which means that the lives of 140 000 to 175 000 people will be impacted.
Ntshabele said it’s not easy to redirect citrus because it is grown according to the markets’ specifications. This includes specific measures for plant health.
Even if growers manage to redirect some of the citrus successfully, it could again create oversupply in some markets, leading to lower prices there. This will impact the entire South African citrus industry.
If America’s increased import tariff is indeed confirmed, the CGA hopes the government will take all possible measures to improve access to other markets.
There are many markets in Asia from which local growers could benefit in the future. Improving access to these markets through trade agreements, lower tariffs, and adapted protocols for plant health takes time – something we don’t have.
The industry plans to increase its citrus production by 100 000 cartons in the coming years and is exploring new markets for exporting these fruits.
Impact On Grapes
Christo Conradie, South Africa Wine’s manager of stakeholder engagement and policy, stated that the increased import tariff has profound implications for the sustainability of the wine industry’s exports to the United States and causes tension across the entire value chain.
He states that the American market is of vital importance to the South African wine industry – approximately R660 million worth of wine is exported to the United States each year.
Implementing a 30% import tariff will likely result in a substantial decline in export volumes, as South African wine will become less competitive in an already fiercely competitive market.
This loss will have far-reaching consequences, ranging from reduced income for producers and exporters to downsizing operations and potential unemployment, particularly in rural areas where wine production is a vital source of employment.
According to the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI), this industry is also deeply concerned about the 30% increase in import tariffs, as the United States is an important, emerging market for South African table grapes that has developed over two decades of reliable off-season supply.
The 30% tariff, however, will make South African table grapes uncompetitive in the American market. This could be worsened if a lower tariff is imposed on Southern Hemisphere competitors, such as Peru and Chile.
SATI believes the tariff could hinder the industry’s progress in increasing exports to the United States, a key aspect of SATI’s strategy for market diversification.
Although only 3% of South Africa’s table grapes are currently destined for America, this volume has increased at a compound annual rate of 20% from the 2020-21 season to the 2024/25 season.
During the 2024/25 season, 2.2 million cartons of 4.5kg each (approximately 9 900 tons) of table grapes, worth approximately R360 million, were exported to the United States. The industry’s gross value of production was R15 billion in the previous year.
Besides the industry’s significant contribution to the local economy, it also provides almost 105 000 jobs with an annual value of R3.83 billion. America’s higher import tariff threatens these jobs.
American Consumers Pay The Price
The 30% tariff that might be imposed on South African table grapes would mean that American consumers would pay nearly double the average price for table grapes – about $44 for an 8.2 kg carton.
Alex Whyte from Macadamias SA’s (SAMAC) committee for market access and development also believes American consumers will bear the costs of Trump’s tariff imposition in the long term.
Aside from China, the United States remains the largest market for South African macadamias and shelled nuts. The nut industry recently received mixed news: while China announced in June that there will be no levy on macadamia imports from South Africa from next year, offering potential for increased demand and improved competitiveness, the US announced additional tariffs.
Also read: Macadamia exporters react to 30% US tariff: ‘Don’t panic’
‘Government Doesn’t Care’
The deafening silence following the South African government’s visit to the United States in May this year gives the impression that little progress has been made so far in the negotiations between these two countries.
Terry Gale, chairman of Exporters Western Cape (EWC), said exporters are especially concerned due to the current uncertainty surrounding trade with the United States, and because it appears the government does not care about this.
EWC still hopes that South African enterprises can collaborate and jointly present a trade proposal that meets President Trump’s requirements, thereby averting a crisis.
Gale said that some members of this organisation in the agricultural sector, particularly in the citrus industry, have submitted concerns to America but have not yet achieved any success. African Farming inquired with the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition about the current progress in South Africa’s negotiations with the United States. Phumzile Kotane, spokesperson for the Department, said feedback will be provided as soon as new information becomes available.
