Zimbabwe may still need imports of 700 000 tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year. Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season).
By Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
One of the countries that imported the most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country accounted for 56% of South Africa’s maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes that year. In the 2025-26 marketing year, Zimbabwe’s maize demand is expected to be smaller but remain substantial.
The previous season presented unique challenges, primarily the mid-summer drought. This led to a 60% decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production, leaving the country with only 635 000 tonnes of harvest. This was far below the 2 million tonnes Zimbabwe required for its domestic annual consumption. Thus, imports played a crucial role in meeting domestic needs.
Recovery Underway but Gap Remains
But the current season has brought some recovery. Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production is forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, according to recent data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just more than twice the output from the previous season. This recovery is primarily driven by improved weather conditions and an increase in the area that farmers managed to plant for maize. Still, Zimbabwe’s potential maize harvest of 1.3 million tonnes will not be sufficient to meet the country’s domestic needs of 2.0 million tonnes, leaving it to import the balance.
Zambia May Rejoin Export Market
In the last marketing year, South Africa supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe’s maize imports. However, in the 2025-26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia becoming an exporter again. Zambia, the second-largest maize producer in the Southern African region, has seen a recovery in its 2024-25 maize production, now estimated at 3.66 million tonnes, up from 1.5 million tonnes in the previous season, according to government data from Zambia.
Similar to Zimbabwe and South Africa, this increase in the harvest is due to favourable weather conditions and decent area plantings. The harvest is underway in the country. This means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize, as its domestic maize consumption is approximately 2.8 million tonnes, which is far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3.66 million tonnes.
South Africa Maintains Export Strength
Moreover, South African maize supplies are also robust, with the 2024-25 harvest estimated at 14.78 million tonnes, representing a 15% year-on-year increase. There is an increase in both white and yellow maize.
Also worth noting is that South Africa’s relatively modest rise reflects the fact that output damage during the 2024 drought period was more limited. The improved seed cultivars, along with relatively higher fertiliser usage and other interventions, ensured that South Africa’s maize production decline last year was moderate.
Notably, the 2024-25 harvest appears likely to be well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will remain a net exporter of maize.
Import Timing and Regional Outlook
Zimbabwe will likely remain one of the key beneficiaries, as we have already witnessed imports since the start of the marketing year in May. Still, we anticipate that the large volumes of imports may materialise at the end of the year or early 2026. In the near term, Zimbabwe will likely rely on its maize harvest.
Indeed, the maize needs in the Southern Africa region for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to be less severe than those witnessed in the 2024-25 marketing year, when Zambia’s maize harvest was down by half and Zimbabwe’s by 60%. There were also significant losses in other countries, such as Mozambique, Lesotho, and Malawi, among others.
This time around, the better weather conditions have supported production. Still, Zimbabwe may remain the major maize importer in Southern Africa.
