Expert analysis reveals a complex market dynamic across farming sectors.
By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming
South Africa’s agricultural markets for the week ending 1 August 2025 are experiencing a period of significant volatility, with farmers and consumers alike feeling the impact of rapidly changing commodity prices across livestock, fresh produce, and grain sectors. The latest weekly analysis from Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, paints a picture of an industry grappling with both challenges and opportunities.
Beef Market
The beef market has become a focal point of concern for agricultural economists, with dramatic price movements catching many by surprise. “The beef market has been hit by both external market conditions and domestic supply pressures, evident in the sharp 16.5% week-on-week price drop for Class A prices,” explains Makube. This significant decline brings Class A beef to R71.98 per kilogram, representing one of the most substantial weekly drops recorded in recent months.
The situation reflects the complex dynamics at play in South Africa’s protein markets. Despite the weekly decline, year-on-year figures tell a different story, with Class A beef prices still showing a remarkable 29.1% increase compared to the same period last year. This suggests that while short-term market forces are creating volatility, the underlying demand for quality beef remains strong.
Weaner calves, considered a bellwether for future market conditions, experienced a more modest decline of 0.7% week-on-week to R36.45 per kilogram live weight. However, these prices remain 14.3% higher than the previous year, indicating sustained confidence in the livestock sector’s long-term prospects.
Sheep Market Shows Resilience
In contrast to the beef market’s turbulence, the sheep industry has demonstrated remarkable stability. “Improving demand for lamb prices has cushioned feeder lambs, which gained 4% week-on-week and remain resilient amidst higher input costs,” notes Makube. Feeder lambs now trade at R50.52 per kilogram live weight, reflecting the sector’s ability to maintain pricing power even during challenging economic conditions.
The mutton market has also shown encouraging signs, with Class A mutton averaging R106.30 per kilogram, up 0.2% week-on-week. More impressively, the year-on-year growth of 18% demonstrates the sector’s robust performance over the longer term. This stability in mutton prices, according to Makube’s analysis, reflects strong end-of-winter demand and stable production conditions.
Port and Poultry Markets
The pork sector continues to benefit from its position as a more affordable protein option for South African consumers. Porker prices climbed 0.4% week-on-week to R35.02 per kilogram, while baconer prices reached R34.63 per kilogram. Makube observes that “the pork market’s slight improvement demonstrates its affordability and attractiveness to middle-income consumers during periods of broader price inflation in other protein markets.”
Year-on-year growth in pork prices of between 10.5% and 10.9% reflects increased household demand for cheaper protein cuts as consumers adjust their purchasing patterns in response to economic pressures.
The poultry market has shown minimal week-on-week changes, with fresh whole birds trading at R39.45 per kilogram and medium frozen whole birds at R34.98 per kilogram. However, the year-on-year increases have been significant, with fresh poultry up 16.8% and individually quick-frozen portions rising 20.5%. These increases are primarily attributed to rising feed costs and broader inflationary pressures affecting the industry.
Fresh Produce Markets
The fresh produce sector presents perhaps the most dramatic story in South African agriculture, with some commodities experiencing extraordinary price movements. “Vegetable markets show mixed patterns, with carrots seeing a remarkable 61.6% year-on-year price increase while tomatoes experience a slight recovery,” explains Makube.
The carrot market exemplifies the challenges facing vegetable producers, with prices rising to R6.45 per kilogram amid a 19.08% decline in volumes year-on-year. This combination of higher prices and lower volumes typically indicates supply constraints, likely related to weather conditions or production challenges.
Other vegetables have shown more mixed performances. Butternuts gained 11.56% week-on-week, while lettuce increased 4.93%. Conversely, cabbage prices fell 7.43%, which Makube attributes to oversupply conditions in the market.
Tomatoes, always closely watched as a staple vegetable, rose 1.85% week-on-week to R8.84 per kilogram, though year-on-year growth remains modest at 7.4%. This suggests the tomato market is finding some stability after previous periods of volatility.
Fruit Markets
The fruit sector presents some of the most striking examples of market dynamics at work. Mangoes have experienced an almost unbelievable price surge of 483.4% year-on-year, reaching R95.51 per kilogram. This extraordinary increase is accompanied by a 72.81% decline in volumes, clearly illustrating the impact of supply shortages on pricing.
Avocados have also performed strongly, increasing 52.8% year-on-year to R23.30 per kilogram, with volume gains of 15.47% suggesting both increased supply and strong demand. In contrast, grapes have seen prices fall 52.8% year-on-year, reflecting seasonal patterns and reduced demand during the off-season.
Makube emphasises the role of exports in driving certain fruit prices, particularly noting “a heavy reliance on exports driving mango prices upward.”
Grains and Oilseeds
The grains market continues to navigate global pressures and local supply conditions. White maize futures declined 2.7% month-on-month for September contracts to R4,695 per ton, driven by improving stocks and regional maize exports. Yellow maize showed similar patterns, with prices affected by global parity pressures impacting SAFEX contracts.
Despite challenges in the grains sector, oilseeds have shown resilience. “Despite global inflationary pressures, sunflower seed futures presented a steady month-on-month increase of 3.1%, supported by ongoing demand for oilseed products,” notes Makube. Sunflower prices increased to between R10,035 and R10,229 per ton across futures contracts.
Soybeans have remained relatively stable at R7,368 to R7,573 per ton, with Makube observing that “sunflower remains resilient against a backdrop of tight global oilseed stocks, bolstering export prospects for local producers.”
