I previously stated my view on South Africa’s food price inflation prospects, signalling a possible moderation. But as the close observers of the data have seen, we have continued to observe a faster rate of increase in South Africa’s consumer food prices.
By Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Agricultural Economist at Agbiz
Food Inflation Reaches 18-month High
Data released on 20 August by Statistics South Africa shows that consumer food price inflation rose to the highest level in 18 months, at 5.5% in July 2025, from 4.7% in June, underpinned primarily by continuous increases in meat and vegetables prices.
So, doesn’t this mean we are changing our view about the path ahead? No, we believe the major drivers of these particular products are temporary. Thus, we have maintained our view of potentially moderating food price inflation in the coming months.
Meat Price Pressures Ease As Restrictions Lift
As with the previous month, the increase in the meat price inflation was due to two significant factors, which have now somewhat eased.
First, the outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil led to South Africa temporarily restricting the imports of poultry products from Brazil, causing panic in the market. However, the restrictions have now been lifted, and imports are slowly recovering.
Second, South Africa experienced an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, thus temporarily pushing up prices. The slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, and we continue to believe we may see easing in red meat prices, which should be reflected in the inflation figures of the coming months.
Moreover, when there are outbreaks of disease, South Africa is temporarily restricted from various export markets, which, over time, increases the supply of red meat into the local market.
Vegetable Prices Affected By Weather Conditions
With regard to vegetables, the price increases are primarily because of the impact of excessive rain on products, as we have seen volumes of certain products down somewhat in various fresh produce markets in the past couple of months. But the recent data is showing an improvement, which again underscores our view that the recent price inflation acceleration may be temporary.
Outlook Remains Positive Despite Recent Increases
In essence, although food price inflation accelerated in July, we expect some moderation in the coming months, as the prices of the above products are potentially slow, and we see the continuous benefits of an ample domestic grains harvest and a decent fruit harvest that continue to enter the market.
