Although cooler conditions usually accompany La Niña systems, there is a high chance that above-normal warm temperatures could occur over large parts of the world from September to November, says the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at Landbouweekblad and African Farming
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s latest forecast on El Niño and La Niña indicates the occurrence of a La Niña system could begin from September. According to the organisation’s Global Production Centers for Seasonal Forecasts, the chance of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean cooling to La Niña levels from September to November 2025 is 55%. The chance of Enso (El Niño Southern Oscillation)-neutral levels during the same period is 45%. For the period from October to December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions increases to about 60%. The chance of El Niño conditions from September to December 2025 is extremely low, the WMO says.
The rainfall outlook that may occur until the end of the year is expected to be consistent with what is typical of La Niña systems.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and their associated impacts on our weather are important climate intelligence tools. They translate into millions of dollars of economic savings for key sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport and have saved thousands of lives when used to guide preparedness and response actions,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO.
Temperatures
According to the WMO’s global seasonal climate update, temperatures from September to November are expected to be above normal over large parts of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This update not only takes into account the Enso as a key driver. It also considers the influence of important climate variation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The updates also monitor anomalies in global and regional surface temperatures and precipitation as well as their possible development in the coming season.
The higher temperatures are predicted over the southern regions of North America, Western Europe, Northwest Africa, North Asia, East Asia and the Arctic Circle in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, warmer temperatures are expected over New Zealand, the western half of South America, equatorial Africa, Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent.
Over the oceans, widespread above-normal temperatures are expected over the North Pacific, North Atlantic and Indian Ocean basins, with agreement between different weather models reinforcing the signal for warmer temperatures. Cooler than normal conditions will be limited, but may occur over a patch of the South Pacific near 120°W. In the context of the South Pacific, 120°W refers to a longitude 120 degrees west of the zero longitude. Over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the chance of normal temperatures is high, while temperatures may be cooler in the area between 150°W and 120°W longitudes.
