The Zimbabwean government has imposed a ban on maize imports, citing increased local production and assurances from regulators that current supplies are sufficient.
By Nico van Burick, senior journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Zimbabwean policymakers may have valid grounds for banning maize imports, but government interference in agricultural markets should be kept to a minimum, says Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz. Such interference, he warns, risks disrupting the efficient allocation of scarce resources and the proper functioning of markets.
“We believe that in times of abundant harvests, farmers and agribusinesses must be allowed to export and benefit from the global market. In times of droughts or floods, trade must still be allowed. Indeed, there may be short-term economic pain for consumers through higher prices in deficit years when imports are needed, but this induces farmers to plant more in the succeeding seasons.”
The ban is intended to protect farmers who received government input support at the start of the season, Sihlobo says. An immediate unintended consequence, however, is that consumers will not fully benefit from lower prices. By blocking competitive imports from South Africa and other countries, the policy risks artificially inflating domestic prices.
Also read: Zimbabwe’s maize production is recovering, but import needs remain substantial
Harvest Not Enough to Meet Zimbabwe’s Needs
Sihlobo doubts that Zimbabwe’s import ban will last long. The country is unlikely to have enough maize to cover the entire marketing year, which means imports will probably be needed again later in the season.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Services’ Pretoria office, Zimbabwe’s 2024/25 maize harvest is estimated at 1,3 million tonnes. Although this is more than double the previous season’s harvest, it still falls short of the national demand of about 2 million tonnes. As a result, imports of roughly 700 000 tonnes may be required. If Zimbabwe re-enters the market, South Africa could once again be a key supplier.
In the previous marketing year, South Africa provided almost all of Zimbabwe’s maize imports. This trend may shift, as Zambia – expecting a 3,66 million-tonne harvest against domestic consumption of 2,8 million tonnes – will also be a net exporter.
Bumper Maize Harvest in South Africa Shifts Export Focus
In South Africa, the maize harvest is expected to reach 15,8 million tonnes, 23% higher than last season and well above domestic demand of 12 million tonnes.
In the near term, South African maize exporters should focus on markets in the Far East and deeper into Southern Africa, Sihlobo says, while keeping an eye on the possibility of renewed export opportunities to Zimbabwe later in the season.
