Cautious optimism is evident in South Africa’s pork industry as pork prices start to recover following a period of pressure from rising input costs, according to Absa Agri’s latest trends report.
By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
Pork prices have risen slightly since 2022, mainly due to growing consumer demand. Pork consumption has notably increased as households increasingly sought more affordable protein options.
According to the report, which was released at Nampo Cape 2025, producers initially responded positively to the increasing demand in 2022, with improved production and higher slaughter figures on an annual basis.
In 2023 and 2024, however, the industry encountered significant challenges due to increasing input costs, particularly for feed and energy, which pressured profit margins.
Also read: High international lamb and mutton prices could remain till 2027 – Absa Agri Trends
Adaptation Strategies
Absa Agri says producers have adapted to challenging conditions by making strategic changes, such as increasing the slaughter weight of pigs by keeping animals longer to boost meat yield per animal. Additionally, genetic improvements in pigs have helped these animals become heavier at slaughter. This has resulted in higher yields and greater production efficiency.
Despite market pressures, pork prices stayed fairly steady in 2024, as increased supply was offset by stronger consumer purchasing power.
Also watch: Positive developments in the pork industry
Market Dynamics And Competition
Market analyses show that pork consumption remains highly sensitive to price movements, both in absolute terms and relative to competing proteins. Historically, a correlation has existed between C-class beef and pork prices.
This correlation reflected consumer trends, particularly regarding rising prices. “However, this relationship has weakened in 2025, as price increases in C-class beef in the second quarter of the year did not lead to corresponding increases in pork prices,” the report states.
A significant shift was observed in July this year when the period of sideways movement in pork prices ended and responded to earlier increases in C-class beef and poultry prices. Prices rose, and this trend could potentially persist, especially if pork supply stays limited while consumer demand remains strong.
Also read: Agricultural Outlook: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Outlook For 2025
Absa Agri anticipates pork prices will rise slightly for the rest of the year, driven by competitive price pressure from other meat categories and seasonal demand increases.
The price recovery is expected to happen more gradually than in other meat sectors due to the high relative prices of C-class beef and poultry, combined with the marketing of more and heavier pigs during 2024.
Furthermore, lower maize and soybean prices, combined with higher expected pork prices, are expected to boost producers’ profitability for the remainder of 2025.
Medium-term Expectations
Looking ahead to 2026, Absa Agri’s analysis suggests that the recovery in profitability will likely stimulate a positive response in supply. This will slow the increase in pork prices over the medium term.
The report states that this potential price pressure could be partly offset by ongoing declines in yellow maize prices, which will help ease pressure from feed costs and sustain favourable margins for producers.
Read the full report.
