Weather models predict average to above-average rainfall across much of the Eastern Cape through February 2026, according to the provincial weather office.

By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

The Eastern Cape can expect a wetter season ahead, with average to above-average rainfall forecast from now until February 2026, according to Hugh van Niekerk, regional manager at the South African Weather Service. The northwestern parts of the province may still see drier spells this month and in November, but by January and February next year, most areas could receive above-average rain.

This is good news for water supply, with dam levels already relatively healthy and expected to remain favourable.

Drought Persists in Some Regions

The Weather Service’s broader outlook points to wetter conditions across much of the northern, central and eastern regions of the country, a welcome boost for dam levels in the summer rainfall areas. But not everywhere will benefit – parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo may receive below-average rainfall.

According to the Department of Water and Sanitation’s National Integrated Water Information System (NIWIS), several towns and settlements in the Eastern Cape, the eastern Western Cape and Mpumalanga are still experiencing moderate drought conditions.

Temperature forecasts add another layer of pressure. Above-average minimum and maximum temperatures are expected across most of the country, which will drive up water demand and increase evaporation. The exception is the south-western coastal belt, where below-average maximum temperatures are predicted in late spring and early summer.

Regional forecasts for the Eastern Cape

• Winterberg and surrounding areas
Weather models point to average to above-average rainfall through spring and summer.

• Gamtoos / Kouga / Nelson Mandela Bay Metro
A drier-than-normal spell is expected in October and November 2025, followed by above-average rainfall from December through February 2026.

• Gariep Dam (Nooitgedacht System)
Drier conditions are anticipated for early summer, but rainfall is likely to pick up to above-average levels for the rest of the season.

• Klein Karoo (Steytlerville/Jansenville and surrounds)
Conditions are generally very dry in this region. The season is forecast to begin with below-average rainfall, before shifting to wetter conditions from late December to February 2026.