Chance of frost in the third week of October

Cold fronts may continue to move across the country until mid-October, bringing brief drops in minimum temperatures.

By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad

Cold fronts expected to move across the country in the third week of October could cause a sharp drop in minimum temperatures between 14 and 17 October. There is a chance of frost over the southern parts of the country, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.

From 14 to 17 October, minimum temperatures across the Western Cape are expected to fall significantly, with lows of around 0°C possible at Ceres and Barrydale. In the Hex River Valley and Robertson, the mercury could dip to about 3°C.

Between 15 and 17 October, cold conditions are also likely elsewhere. At Barkly East in the Eastern Cape, minimum temperatures could reach 0°C on 16 and 17 October. At Prieska in the Northern Cape, temperatures are expected to drop to about 5°C, and Bothaville in the Free State could see lows of about 6°C. In Bethlehem and Ficksburg, minimums of 3°C are possible, and Reitz could experience lows of about 2°C.

Also read: Summer rainfall: Wetter days ahead for the Eastern Cape

Maximum Temperatures 

Van den Berg says that in the coming weeks, maximum temperatures in the winter rainfall region will remain moderate to cool, with only a few days exceeding 30°C. For fairly long periods, maximum temperatures could hover around or below 25°C, making for quite cool conditions.

Meanwhile, from 6 to 11 October, maximum temperatures of 35°C or higher are expected over the western interior and the northern parts of Limpopo. With improved conditions for rain expected in the coming weeks, maximum temperatures in the summer rainfall region should be more moderate, with only short spells of intense heat, he says.

Also read: Minimum temperatures could drop sharply until next week

Rain Expected Over Both Winter and Summer Rainfall Regions 

In the short term, light rain of up to 10 mm is expected over the western parts of the winter rainfall region on 10 and 11 October, with further light rain possible over the Overberg and Southern Cape from 13 to 15 October, Van den Berg says.

Heavier rainfall of up to 30 mm is possible along the Garden Route, for example, around George, on 11 October, but especially on 15 and 16 October. This also applies to the coastal areas of the Eastern Cape, although less rain is expected over the interior of the Garden Route and Eastern Cape. This rain could be the best in many months for the extremely dry parts of the Garden Route.

In the last week of October, further rainfall is likely over much of the winter rainfall region, except along the West Coast.

Over the summer rainfall region, between 25 and 50 mm of rain is possible from 6 to 20 October across Gauteng, the Eastern Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. Rainfall of 10 to 25 mm may also occur over the remainder of the Free State, North West, the southern parts of Limpopo and most of the Eastern Cape, excluding the south-western parts and the eastern interior of the Northern Cape.

Lighter rain of less than 10 mm is possible over most of the remaining parts of the country, except the far western Northern Cape.

Additional summer rainfall is also possible during the last few days of October.