The agricultural sector remains a cornerstone of South Africa’s economy, with commodity prices telling a story that affects everyone from the farmer in the field to the family at the dinner table. As we examine the latest market trends for the week ending 3 October 2025, a complex picture emerges of an industry navigating seasonal changes, global pressures, and local demand patterns.

By Maile Matsimela, Digital Editor at African Farming

Paul Makube, Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB Commercial, explains that understanding these market movements requires looking beyond simple price changes to the underlying forces that drive agricultural commerce in South Africa.

Livestock sector

South Africa’s livestock sector continues to experience significant year-on-year price increases, a trend that speaks to both local demand pressures and rising production costs. The beef market, often considered a barometer of economic health, shows Class A beef reaching R70.89 per kilogram, representing a substantial 32.3% increase compared to the same period last year.

What makes these numbers particularly interesting is the stability seen in week-to-week changes. Despite the dramatic annual increases, beef prices have remained relatively steady in recent weeks, suggesting that while the market has adjusted to new price levels, it has found some equilibrium.

The sheep market tells a similar story, with mutton prices climbing 21.2% year-on-year to R76.63 per kilogram. Perhaps more telling is the performance of feeder lambs, which have seen prices rise 22.1% annually, indicating strong demand throughout the supply chain.

Paul Makube notes that these livestock price trends reflect several converging factors, including the increased cost of feed, transportation expenses, and the steady demand for protein in the South African diet.

Pork has emerged as a relative success story, with more modest year-on-year increases of around 10-11% for both porkers and baconers. This makes pork an increasingly attractive option for cost-conscious consumers, a trend that has contributed to steady demand growth in this sector.

The poultry industry, traditionally the most accessible protein source for many South African families, has seen fresh whole bird prices increase 21.2% year-on-year to R40.58 per kilogram. However, frozen options remain more affordable, with medium frozen whole birds increasing just 2.5% annually, highlighting how processing and storage methods can significantly impact consumer prices.

Also read: Pork market shows signs of recovery – Absa Agri Trends

Grain and Oilseeds

South Africa’s grain markets are experiencing a period of price moderation, with both white and yellow maize futures showing monthly declines. White maize December futures dropped 8.1% to R3,685 per ton, while yellow maize fell 5.6% to R3,565 per ton. These changes represent more than statistical movements; they signal potential relief for livestock farmers who depend on these grains for animal feed.

The wheat market has remained relatively stable, with prices showing minimal monthly changes. This stability in wheat pricing is crucial for bread and other staple food prices that directly impact household budgets across the country.

Sunflower seeds and soybeans, critical components of South Africa’s oilseed sector, have both experienced monthly price declines of 6.4% and 5.2% respectively. These movements often reflect global supply and demand dynamics, as South Africa operates within an interconnected global agricultural market.

According to Makube’s analysis, these grain and oilseed price movements suggest that input costs for livestock producers may be stabilising, which could eventually translate into more moderate protein price increases in the coming months.

Also read: Faster market access tops priority list for agriculture

Fresh Produce

The fresh produce sector tells perhaps the most dynamic story in South Africa’s agricultural markets, with dramatic price swings that reflect the seasonal nature of farming and the unpredictable elements that can affect crop production.

The vegetable market demonstrates how quickly agricultural fortunes can change. Butternuts have experienced an extraordinary 135.4% year-on-year price increase, reaching R14.43 per kilogram. This dramatic rise reflects both seasonal availability and production challenges that have limited supply. Interestingly, trading volumes for butternuts increased 24.2% week-on-week, suggesting that despite higher prices, demand remains strong.

Tomatoes present another fascinating case study, with prices jumping 23.2% in a single week to R12.41 per kilogram, though year-on-year increases remain modest at 2.4%. This volatility reflects the delicate balance between supply and demand in fresh produce markets, where weather, transportation, and seasonal factors can create rapid price movements.

Onions offer a contrasting narrative, with prices remaining stable week-on-week at R4.04 per kilogram but showing a 12.5% year-on-year decline. This price performance, combined with a 17.3% increase in weekly trading volumes, suggests that onion farmers have successfully increased production, creating more favourable pricing for consumers.

Potatoes, a staple in many South African households, demonstrate how dramatic market corrections can occur. Despite a 20.4% weekly price increase to R4.79 per kilogram, annual prices remain 63.3% lower than the previous year. This dramatic annual decline reflects how agricultural markets can experience significant supply-side corrections.

Paul Makube emphasises that these vegetable price movements highlight the importance of seasonal planning and the challenges that farmers face in balancing production volumes with market demand.

Also read: Fresh Produce Outlook | Demand gives markets a boost – but can it last?

Fruits

The fruit market showcases the luxury end of fresh produce, where seasonal availability and quality considerations drive pricing dynamics. Mangoes have captured attention with an extraordinary 195.4% year-on-year price increase to R29.81 per kilogram, reflecting both the seasonal nature of this fruit and potential supply constraints.

Grapes, trading at R63.10 per kilogram, show a 12.6% annual decline, suggesting that grape farmers may have increased production or that import competition has influenced pricing. The high absolute price of grapes reflects both the labour-intensive nature of grape farming and the quality expectations of consumers.

Bananas, often considered an everyday fruit for many families, have seen prices decline 26.1% year-on-year to R8.19 per kilogram. This price reduction, combined with substantial trading volumes, suggests that banana supply chains have become more efficient or that increased import volumes have benefited consumers.

Apples and avocados represent the middle ground in fruit pricing, with modest year-on-year increases of 18.8% and 10.9% respectively. These fruits often serve as indicators of broader consumer spending patterns, as they represent discretionary purchases for many households.

Wool, Cotton and Sugar

Beyond the mainstream agricultural commodities, specialised markets tell their own stories of global integration and local production challenges. The wool market has shown strength across various categories, reflecting both seasonal demand patterns and the quality reputation of South African wool in international markets.

Cotton markets present a more challenging picture, with South African-derived cotton showing monthly and weekly declines. This performance reflects global cotton market pressures and highlights the challenges facing local cotton producers in competing with international suppliers.

Sugar markets have shown modest monthly gains of 2.3%, reflecting relatively stable supply and demand conditions. The sugar market often serves as an indicator of both agricultural production efficiency and consumer demand patterns for processed foods.