Weather forecasts show that the conditions favouring tornadoes and severe thunderstorms could persist over the coming weeks.
By Alani Janeke, Senior Journalist at African Farming and Landbouweekblad
The past two weeks have seen two tornado incidents in Mpumalanga and Gauteng, along with an incident in which heavy lightning struck people and vehicles at God’s Window in Mpumalanga.
In the coming weeks, conditions are expected to remain favourable for tornadoes and severe storms, says independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg.
Very windy conditions are occurring, and this increases static electricity in the air, which contributes to severe lightning, thunder and the formation of tornadoes. As long as these windy conditions persist, the risk of severe storms will remain elevated, he says.
Lightning Strikes at God’s Window
Facebook user David Molemo Radebe posted photos of 15 vehicles that were struck by lightning at God’s Window last week. According to his post, a child was also struck and later admitted to hospital.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) confirmed a tornado in Germiston last week, and Vox Weather reported the formation of another between Belfast and Middelburg.
Also read: Above-average rain expected from November to January
Rainfall Outlook
Van den Berg says that in the winter rainfall region, very little rain is expected until at least the end of October, particularly over the central to western parts of the Western Cape. Some light rain may occur in the Overberg, Southern Cape and especially along the Garden Route. Rainfall will remain light, however, and the chances of good rain leading to runoff that can replenish dam levels are very small.
In the summer rainfall region, tropical moisture is expected to rejoin the weather systems around 17 October, leading to isolated to scattered showers during the last two weeks of October. These are likely over the North West, Free State, Gauteng, southern Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and the northern parts of the Eastern Cape.
Van den Berg says stormy conditions will persist over the central parts of the country and in high-altitude regions.
Also read: Cold front could bring snow next week
The Season Ahead
Dry conditions will continue across the winter rainfall region, as the rainy season has now ended. If strong summer systems develop, they could move southwards over the western parts of the country, but this is only expected later in the season, Van den Berg says.
Heavy rainfall is anticipated over the central and eastern parts of the summer rainfall region in October and November.
Van den Berg says a drier period could occur around February next year, depending on whether the developing La Niña pattern around December and January weakens rapidly.
Also read: Summer rainfall: Wetter days ahead for the Eastern Cape
